🌐 June 29, 2025: Global Latest News and Future Outlook

Key Points

• BIS Warns of a “Tipping Point” for the Global Economy
• Declining U.S. Consumer Confidence and Uncertain Employment Outlook
• Sharp Dollar Drop, Rising Defense Stocks, and Increased Gold Demand
• Oil Prices Briefly Rebound, but Supply–Demand Balance Is Key
• U.S. Independence Day Preparations and U.K. Welfare Reform Bill Repassed
• Future Focus: Central Bank Policies, Trade Negotiations, Geopolitical Risks

1. Global Economy at a Tipping Point

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in its latest report that the world economy is at a “structural turning point.”

• A tit-for-tat cycle of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures
• Supply-chain fragmentation across Europe and Asia
• Capital outflows and currency instability in emerging markets

2. U.S. Consumer Confidence and Employment Concerns

In June’s Conference Board survey, the Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly deteriorated.

• Tariff-driven price increases are weighing on household budgets
• Labor-market sentiment is fueling uncertainty about future jobs

3. Market Trends: Dollar Collapse and Defense Stocks Surge

• The U.S. Dollar Index logged its steepest one-month drop since the 1980s
• Defense stocks in Europe and the U.S. saw relative gains
• Gold has regained attention as a safe-haven asset

4. Oil Market Outlook

• After a weekly drop of over 10%, oil prices briefly rebounded on strong U.S. demand data
• Brent is trading in the $67 range, WTI around $65
• Supply–demand watchpoints: the durability of the Middle East ceasefire, OPEC+ production decisions, and Northern Hemisphere summer demand

5. Cultural & Political Developments

• The U.S. is in full swing preparing celebrations for July 4th Independence Day events
• The U.K. House of Commons has re-passed the welfare reform bill, triggering planned protests by labor unions and opposition parties

Future Focus

1. Direction of upcoming central bank policies (Fed, ECB, BoJ)
2. Progress in U.S.–China and U.S.–EU trade talks and easing of tariff risks
3. Evolution of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Asia
4. Capital flows in emerging markets and currency-stabilization measures
5. Recovery of consumer sentiment and key employment statistics

This article is compiled based on information as of June 29, 2025. We will continue to track developments and their economic impact.