Global Latest News and Outlook as of July 3, 2025

Key Points of This Article

• G20 Osaka Preparatory Meetings (Osaka): Final adjustments and main agenda items ahead of the summit
• Middle East Situation: Signs of easing Israel–Iran tensions and efforts to resume dialogue
• Ukraine Front: Stabilization of the frontline and prospects for additional Western support
• U.S. Economic Indicators: June ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing indices releases and market reactions
• Global Markets: Early-month movements in the dollar, euro, oil, and equities
• Asia Politics: Mid-election status in Indonesia and implications for the regional economy
• Climate Crisis Response: Key national commitments ahead of COP31

1. G20 Osaka Preparatory Meetings: Final Adjustments and Main Agenda

• On July 3 in Osaka, finance and foreign ministers held preparatory meetings for the upcoming G20 summit.
• Main Agenda Items
  • Strengthening global supply-chain resilience
  • Harmonizing digital taxation and data flow rules
  • Detailing climate finance mechanisms
• Outlook: Despite some differences in emphasis, the draft joint communiqué is nearly finalized, with final confirmation expected at the leaders’ summit.

2. Middle East Situation: Easing Tensions and Dialogue Resumption

• Israel and Iran have reactivated an informal U.N.–mediated dialogue channel, each affirming their commitment to continued talks for regional stability.
• Saudi Arabia and Egypt are stepping in as mediators, exploring expansion of humanitarian aid corridors.
• Focus Ahead: Defining conditions for another ceasefire extension and formal Gulf-state mediation roles.

3. Ukraine Front: Frontline Stabilization and Additional Support

• In eastern regions such as Luhansk, both sides remain locked in attritional warfare, with only minor territorial gains.
• Western allies are finalizing plans to supply additional ground-to-ground missiles and maritime patrol aircraft to Ukraine next week.
• Outlook: As summer intensifies drone warfare, bolstering air-defense capabilities remains a critical challenge.

4. U.S. Economic Indicators: ISM Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing Indices

• The ISM Manufacturing Index for June, released July 2, came in at 49.8, and the Non-Manufacturing Index at 52.3—manufacturing slipped below 50 again, signaling a partial slowdown.
• Fed officials have noted that manufacturing recovery will be key to future rate-cut decisions; Chair Powell’s upcoming testimony before the House is highly anticipated.
• Market Reaction: The dollar dipped slightly against the euro, and tech stocks saw gains, keeping equities buoyant.

5. Global Markets: Dollar, Euro, Oil, and Equities

• FX: The dollar index fell 0.4% from the previous day; the euro and yen both strengthened, with the euro briefly trading above $1.12.
• Oil: Brent crude slipped into the mid-$70s on expectations of easing Middle East tensions; OPEC+ signaled it will maintain current output levels.
• Equities: U.S. major indices edged higher, Europe saw volatile trading amid growth concerns, and Asian markets awaited Indonesia’s election results.

6. Asia Politics: Mid-Election Status in Indonesia

• Ahead of the July 4 parliamentary election, polls indicate the incumbent ruling coalition will retain a majority.
• Key campaign issues include continued infrastructure investment and boosting manufacturing, raising expectations for expanded ASEAN supply chains.
• Implications: Investor confidence may be buoyed by perceived economic stability in Southeast Asia.

7. Climate Crisis Response: Commitments Ahead of COP31

• In preparation for COP31 (November in Dubai), the EU proposed a 45% greenhouse-gas reduction target by 2030; the U.S. announced enhanced tax incentives for renewables.
• China plans to announce interim targets toward carbon neutrality by 2050 in December.
• Watchpoint: Securing funding for developing-country support and detailed advanced-economy assistance plans.

Outlook: What to Watch Next

1. Finalization and timeline of the G20 leaders’ joint communiqué
2. Formalization of Israel–Iran talks and conditions for ceasefire extension
3. Delivery schedules for Ukraine’s air-defense equipment and summer combat dynamics
4. Powell’s congressional testimony and market expectations for rate cuts
5. Impact of Indonesia’s election outcome on ASEAN economic integration
6. Pre-COP31 commitments on emissions cuts and financing mechanisms

This briefing is based on information available as of July 3, 2025. We will continue to monitor developments and provide timely updates.