July 18, 2025 │ Surge in Oil Prices and Rising Geopolitical Risks Shake Global Markets
This article summarizes the key global news reported on July 18, 2025, and provides an outlook on their political and economic impacts.
1. Oil Prices Rally After Production Halt in Northern Iraq
Drone strikes in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq cut output by half, driving Brent to $69.81 and WTI to $67.81 amid tightening supply concerns.
Outlook
- OPEC+ may consider further voluntary cuts, tightening the market.
- Continued drawdowns of U.S. inventories could fuel short-term price swings.
2. Japan Markets Underperform as Global Stocks Rally
While U.S. and European equities climbed on strong corporate earnings, Japanese stocks fell 0.3% ahead of the Upper House election, and the yen hit its lowest level in two months.
Outlook
- Election results may exacerbate policy uncertainty, leading to volatile trading.
- The government and BOJ may weigh currency intervention or additional easing measures.
3. Taiwan’s Vice President Seeks Peaceful Resolution
Taiwan’s vice president publicly stated “we do not seek confrontation” with China and signaled plans to boost air-defense and cyber-defense budgets.
Outlook
- Increased defense spending could benefit defense contractors.
- Persistent Chinese pushback may threaten maritime shipping and semiconductor supply chains.
4. Heavy Rains Displace Over 5,000 in South Korea
More than 400 mm of rain in 72 hours around Seoul forced over 5,000 evacuations, disrupting rail and road logistics.
Outlook
- Urgent investments in urban drainage and flood-resilient infrastructure are needed.
- Insurers and reinsurers will likely roll out products priced for higher disaster losses.
5. TSMC Reports Record Quarterly Profit
Driven by booming AI-chip demand, Q2 net income reached $13.5 billion—a 60% year-on-year gain.
Outlook
- The company will continue heavy investment in next-gen processes to maintain its technological edge.
- Supply-chain resilience and U.S.–China tariff dynamics will be key strategic issues.
6. U.S. Senate Approves Cuts to Foreign Aid and Public Broadcasting
A bill cutting significant foreign aid and public broadcasting budgets passed the Senate, raising concerns about diplomatic influence and media operations.
Outlook
- Reduced support to developing nations could boost China’s and the EU’s diplomatic clout.
- Domestic backlash over public broadcasting cuts may intensify political debate.
7. Western Nations Tighten Focus on China’s Rare-Earth Strategy
Western governments are racing to diversify supply—accelerating mining in Australia and Africa and investing in recycling technologies.
Outlook
- Securing critical materials will become a central national-security priority.
- Supply-chain diversification will accelerate as part of broader tech-sovereignty efforts.
Conclusion & Outlook
- Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in Iraq and Taiwan threaten energy and high-tech markets.
- Financial Markets: Corporate results and political developments will drive equity and currency trends.
- Climate Adaptation: Extreme-weather defenses will shape infrastructure investment and insurance markets.
- Corporate Strategy: Long-term themes center on diversification and security in semiconductors, materials, and defense.
Going forward, governments and businesses must carefully time policy and investment decisions to support global economic stability and growth.