August 30, 2025 – Global News Roundup｜US PCE Keeps “September Rate Cut” Expectations Alive / No Ruling Yet in Fed Governor Cook Case / Kyiv Under Wide-Scale Attack / Gaza Ceasefire Talks Continue / Rosneft Profit Falls, Oil Prices Slide / Indian Rupee Hits Record Low【Geopolitics × Economic Impact】

A concise overview of major global news on Saturday, August 30, 2025 (JST) in “Key Points → Impacts → Forecasts” format. Reference links are included at the end.

1) United States: PCE Inflation Largely in Line, Markets Maintain September Rate Cut Bets / Fed Governor Cook Dismissal Hearing Deferred

• Key Points: July Core PCE rose +0.3% MoM and +2.9% YoY. Personal consumption increased by +0.5%, showing solid demand. Following the data release, September FOMC rate cut expectations (80–90% probability) remained dominant.
• Personnel Matter: The district court hearing regarding President Trump’s dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook ended without a ruling. The lawsuit is expected to drag on, keeping central bank independence in the spotlight.
• Impact: Short-term rates biased lower, while long-end term premiums remain sticky (= a “twist”-shaped curve). Likely to see continued softening USD & firm gold combination.
• Outlook: Next key data point is employment report. Expect headline-driven volatility while awaiting the court’s decision.

2) Ukraine: Russia Continues Wide-Scale Missile/Drone Attacks, Long-Term Struggle Over Infrastructure Defense

• Key Points: This week saw multiple large-scale nighttime attacks in Kyiv and other cities, damaging administrative buildings and power grids. Even EU facilities suffered. Fighting remains intense.
• Impact: Maritime insurance & freight risk premiums are prone to rise, with spillovers into European long-term interest rates. Expect accelerated investment in infrastructure protection ahead of winter.
• Outlook: While efforts for a ceasefire framework persist, short-term breakthroughs are unlikely. Expect a headline-driven market amid the attritional cycle of infrastructure strikes vs. interception efforts.

3) Middle East: Gaza Ceasefire Talks Center on “Phased Plan (60-Day Ceasefire + Gradual Hostage Release)” / Fighting Continues in Gaza City

• Key Points: Negotiations continue over a phased plan for ceasefire and hostage release. Israeli forces reaffirmed that Gaza City remains excluded from “tactical pause”.
• Impact: The geopolitical premium in shipping insurance and oil remains elevated. Stable operation of humanitarian corridors could help reduce volatility.
• Outlook: If an agreement is reached, expect practical arrangements like standardized inspection protocols and timed deliveries to come first. If talks fail, insurance and freight premiums may stay high.

4) Energy & Corporates: Rosneft H1 Profit Drops 68% / Oil Prices Continue Falling on Weak Demand Outlook

• Key Points: Russian oil giant Rosneft reported a 68% YoY drop in H1 net income, citing OPEC output hikes and weak demand as factors.
• Market: Oil prices fell on expectations of sluggish demand and increasing supply (Brent/WTI dropped into high-to-mid $60s). Weakened seasonal demand adds pressure.
• Related Topic: Reports say UK’s Rolls-Royce is considering IPO among funding options for its SMR (small modular reactor) unit, reviving interest in clean baseload power.
• Outlook: Markets will remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines from Europe & Middle East, along with inventory data. Decarbonization in power generation remains a structural investment theme.

5) Emerging Markets / FX: Indian Rupee Hits Record Low, Impact of US 50% Tariffs Lingers

• Key Points: Amid strained US-India ties and new tariffs, the USD/INR fell to the 88 range, triggering intermittent currency defense speculation.
• Impact: Imported inflation → core CPI effects are likely to be delayed. Foreign capital flows into bonds and equities are turning jittery.
• Outlook: Time-buying via subsidies, tax cuts, and FX intervention. For India-linked sourcing, businesses must redesign contracts and inventory cycles, taking into account currency/tariff sensitivity.

6) Europe: Diverging Views on Inflation Within ECB / Household Inflation Expectations Remain High

• Key Points: July ECB minutes show a split between downside risk camp and those concerned about inflation persistence. Meanwhile, household expected inflation remains above 2% for both short- and mid-term. Most expect no change in September.
• Impact: Sovereign bond term premiums remain unstable, compounded by US factors. Watch out for increased corporate bond issuance costs.

7) Japan: Tokyo Core CPI Slows to +2.5% (August) — Stabilized by Energy Subsidies, but Still Above Target

• Key Points: Core (ex-fresh food) CPI rose +2.5%. Energy subsidies helped dampen growth, but underlying inflation remains above the BoJ target. End-of-month industrial and labor stats show mixed signals due to US tariffs.
• Impact / Outlook: Expect increased volatility in FX and long-term interest rates depending on autumn wage talks, price revisions, and US interest rate path.

Summary (Editorial Perspective)

• Main Macro Drivers:

  1. Ongoing expectations for a September rate cut driven by US PCE data
  2. Prolonged litigation over Fed independence (Cook dismissal case)
  3. Geopolitical uncertainty in Ukraine and Gaza
  4. Weakening oil demand

• Practical Actions:

  1. Recalculate NPV/ALM under dual scenarios:
     • 25bp rate cut + 20–40bp long-term decline, and
     • No cut + stable long-term rates
  2. Review marine insurance, alternate routes (Black Sea, Mediterranean), and inventory buffer levels in line with headlines
  3. For India-related sourcing/sales, visualize double-sensitivity to tariffs and FX, categorized by HS codes
  4. For energy procurement, hedge volatility using inventory + long-term contracts + energy savings / BESS

Reference Links (Primary Sources)

• US PCE / Market Response / Rate Cut Outlook

  • US consumer spending strong; core inflation 2.9% y/y (Reuters)
  • Instant View: core PCE matches expectations (Reuters)
  • Global markets wrap (Reuters)

• Fed Governor Cook Dismissal Case

  • Hearing ends without ruling on Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook (Reuters)

• Ukraine Conflict

  • Russian overnight attack hits Kyiv; EU site damaged (Reuters)
  • Kremlin says still interested in Ukraine peace talks (Reuters)

• Gaza Ceasefire Talks

  • Ceasefire framework (Reuters explainer)
  • Tactical pause not applied to Gaza City (Reuters)
  • Netanyahu: Israel to resume talks (Reuters)

• Oil / Energy / Corporates

  • Oil prices fall on weak demand, supply boost (Reuters)
  • Rosneft net income drops 68% H1 (Reuters)
  • Rolls-Royce weighs IPO for SMR unit (Reuters)

• Indian Rupee

  • Rupee sinks to record low vs USD (Reuters)
  • Rupee at record low vs CNH (Reuters)

• European Macroeconomics

  • ECB minutes: policymakers split on risks (Reuters)
  • ECB consumer inflation expectations stable (Reuters)
  • Bond markets remain turbulent as issuance ramps (Reuters)

• Japan

  • Tokyo CPI +2.5% (Reuters)
  • Japan output falls; tariffs bite (Reuters)

Disclaimer: This article is a summary and outlook based on news reports. It does not constitute investment advice. Always refer to primary sources and the latest market data before making key decisions.