September 4, 2025 — World News Roundup | Profit-taking in gold after record highs / Oil extends losses on OPEC+ hike chatter / European bond yields stay elevated on fiscal worries / Fallout from broad Russian strikes in Ukraine & Red Sea missile revives geopolitics [Geopolitics × Market Impact]

Major topics for Thursday, September 4, 2025 (JST) organized as “Key Points → Impact → What’s Next.” Reference links at the end.

1) Market Overview: Gold dips from record territory / Oil keeps sliding / Long-end yields remain high

• Key Points
  • Gold: After a fresh all-time high, prices edged lower on profit-taking ahead of the jobs report. Rate-cut expectations remain in place.
  • Crude: On reports that OPEC+ will discuss an “additional output increase” at its weekend meeting, oil fell again (>1%). Anticipation of inventory builds also weighed.
  • Rates: European long-term yields sit at multi-year highs, with term premia buoyed by fiscal concerns and heavier issuance.
• Impact: Corporate long-term capital costs (WACC) likely stickier and higher. With expectations for a U.S. September cut intact, the curve tends toward a “twist” (short end ↓ / long end ↑). Preference for defensives such as gold and short-duration sovereigns persists.
• What’s Next: U.S. payrolls and the OPEC+ decision (this weekend) are near-term catalysts. Crude likely holds the upper-$60s range, with risk of testing the lower bound depending on the outcome.

2) Geopolitics: Broad strikes in Ukraine and missiles from the Red Sea/Yemen lift shipping & insurance premia

• Ukraine: Russia carried out large-scale airstrikes across 14 regions. Damage to power transmission and transport infrastructure was reported, while President Zelensky urged Europe to intensify pressure on Russia.
• Middle East: A missile launched from Yemen toward Israel fell outside the area (no damage). Cited as the third launch in 24 hours, it has re-sharpened vigilance along the Red Sea corridor. Ground operations in Gaza City continue to expand.
• Impact: Risk of higher marine insurance and freight surcharges has re-ignited, with likely spillovers to European term premia.
• What’s Next: Winter-season infrastructure protection (power/fuel) and navigation rules in the Red Sea are short-term price drivers. Without progress on cease-fires or practical accords, oil and freight volatility should stay elevated.

3) Policy & Central Banks: Ripple effects from Fed-independence risk and ECB pushback / Canada’s services PMI contracts for a 9th month

• Europe: ECB’s Isabel Schnabel warned that if Fed independence were undermined, global borrowing costs would rise and turmoil would follow. Eurozone inflation at 2.1% ticked up slightly, making front-loading additional cuts unlikely.
• North America: Canada’s services PMI fell to 48.6 (9th straight contraction). U.S. tariff uncertainty is weighing on external demand.
• Impact / What’s Next: Expect continued instability in global long-end yields, keeping corporate bond and mortgage funding costs sticky. Into Payrolls → FOMC, look for a short-end lower / long-end elevated tug-of-war.

4) Europe & Asia Activity: Eurozone manufacturing enters expansion (Aug) — signs of bottoming

• Key Points: Eurozone manufacturing PMI moved into expansion in August. Germany/France remain uneven, but orders and output show a rebound.
• Impact: European orders and price talks won’t snap back to outright bullish, but inventory rebuilding may be pulled forward. Elevated long-end yields and fiscal worries remain headwinds.

Practical Actions (3)

1. Re-estimate cost of capital with “25 bp cut in September × elevated term premia”. Use more conservative discount rates for long-duration projects (real estate, power, data centers).
2. For supply chain & logistics, re-check surcharge clauses tied to Red Sea / Black Sea headlines. Formalize war-risk riders and alternate-route playbooks for rapid deployment.
3. For raw materials & fuel, update inventory bands and hedge thresholds around the weekend OPEC+ meeting outcome.

Reference Links (major primary reporting & public data)

• Gold / Oil / Bonds
  • Gold eases from record peak (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-eases-record-peak-all-eyes-us-jobs-data-2025-09-04/
  • Oil extends losses on OPEC+ hike talk (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-more-than-1-opec-consider-another-output-hike-2025-09-04/ / https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-extends-losses-by-1-opec-consider-another-output-hike-2025-09-04/
  • European yields remain elevated (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-4-2025-09-02/
• Geopolitics
  • Broad strikes in Ukraine (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/sweeping-russian-air-attack-hits-ukraine-putin-attends-china-parade-2025-09-03/ / https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/zelenskiy-pushes-allies-more-pressure-russia-new-air-strikes-hit-ukraine-2025-09-03/
  • Missile launch from Yemen (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-identifies-missile-launched-yemen-towards-israel-2025-09-04/ / Gaza City ground fighting expands (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-military-pushes-further-into-gaza-city-forcing-more-displacement-2025-09-03/
• Policy / Central Banks / Activity
  • ECB’s Schnabel: loss of Fed independence would spur turmoil (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/loss-fed-independence-would-push-up-borrowing-costs-set-off-turmoil-ecbs-2025-09-02/
  • Eurozone manufacturing back to expansion (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/euro-zone-manufacturing-expanded-first-time-since-early-2022-august-pmi-shows-2025-09-01/
  • Canada services PMI contracts (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-services-pmi-dips-august-tariff-uncertainty-clips-activity-2025-09-04/

Disclaimer: This article is a summary and outlook based on reporting and is not investment advice. Please consult primary sources and the latest market data before making important decisions.