World Affairs Roundup for November 27, 2025
Hong Kong High-Rise Fire, New Phase in Ukraine Peace, Pope’s Visit to Turkey, and the Path of Financial Markets
1. What Happened in the World Today? (Quick Overview)
On November 27, 2025, the world was simultaneously driven by four themes: security, humanitarian crises, financial markets, and democracy. This article is written especially with the following readers in mind:
- Executives, planning divisions, and risk management staff at Japanese companies with high overseas sales or procurement ratios
- Individual and professional investors operating in equities, bonds, FX, commodities, or crypto assets
- High school and university students, as well as working adults, studying international politics, security, development economics, and human rights
- People in local governments, education, healthcare, welfare, and NGOs/NPOs who want to know how global events may affect their frontline work
First, here are the day’s main topics in bullet points:
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The large-scale fire at the “Wan Fok Court” high-rise public housing complex in Tai Po, New Territories, Hong Kong has left 55 people dead and 279 missing. Police arrested three executives of the renovation contractor on suspicion of manslaughter due to “gross negligence,” and the incident is now raising questions about the Chinese government’s governance over Hong Kong.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin gave his first positive assessment of a ceasefire proposal discussed between the U.S. and Ukraine in Geneva, saying it “could serve as a basis for a future peace agreement.” At the same time, a Russian military court handed down life sentences to eight people over the Crimean Bridge bombing, underscoring Moscow’s continued hardline stance toward Ukraine.
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Pope Leo of the Catholic Church arrived in Turkey on his first overseas trip since taking office. Warning that a “piecemeal Third World War is underway,” he is drawing particular attention for his talks with President Erdoğan on the Palestinian issue.
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In Gaza, a ceasefire continues, but the UN and NGOs warn that “tents and food will not arrive in time for winter.” Under heavy rain and cold, conditions in displacement camps are deteriorating further.
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Global stock markets extended gains on rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. Asian stocks rose, Bitcoin recovered to the $90,000 range, while the yen continues trading at a level where “FX intervention could happen at any moment.”
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Analysts reported that China is preparing a new industrial strategy to follow “Made in China 2025,” tentatively dubbed “Made in China 2035.” The ambitious plan to boost GDP by 40% over the next decade by further expanding high-tech exports—AI, clean energy, 6G, quantum, and more—looks set to trigger friction with other countries.
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In the United States, a special Reuters report on President Trump’s “retribution campaign” claimed that at least 470 individuals and organizations have been targeted. Meanwhile, the state of Georgia dropped all criminal charges against Trump related to alleged interference in the 2020 presidential election, sparking debate over where to draw the line between the rule of law and political interference.
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In Japan, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated at the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy that the “FY2026 budget will be a growth-oriented budget that appropriately reflects rising prices.” Regarding her November 25 phone call with U.S. President Trump, Japanese officials denied U.S. media reports that “Trump advised her not to provoke China,” highlighting the tightrope Japan is walking in both diplomacy and economic policy.
Below, we’ll carefully walk through these topics—organized into six chapters:
“(1) Hong Kong Fire,” “(2) Ukraine and Russia,” “(3) The Middle East and Papal Diplomacy,” “(4) Global Economy and China,” “(5) U.S. Democracy,” and “(6) Japan’s Diplomacy and Economy”—including their economic and social implications.
2. Hong Kong’s Wan Fok Court Inferno: A Litmus Test for Safety and Governance in High-Density Cities
2-1. 55 Dead, 279 Missing; Three Executives from Renovation Company Arrested
The large-scale fire that broke out on the 26th at Wan Fok Court, a high-rise public housing estate in Tai Po, New Territories, Hong Kong, was finally brought “largely under control” on the afternoon of the 27th. At the time of writing, at least 55 people have died and 279 are missing, making it Hong Kong’s worst disaster in decades.
- The flames spread through 7 of the 8 residential towers, affecting roughly 4,600 residents
- Bamboo scaffolding and non-fireproof sheeting covering the outer walls are believed to have accelerated the spread of the fire
- Police arrested three executives of the construction company that handled the renovation work on suspicion of “manslaughter due to gross negligence”
The project reportedly had a budget of around 330 million Hong Kong dollars (roughly 6 billion yen), and a full-scale investigation is now underway into how cost cutting and disregard for safety may have factored in, including possible corruption and bid rigging.
2-2. Economic Impact: Construction Costs, Insurance, and the Real Estate Market
1) Rising Construction and Renovation Costs
The Hong Kong government had already announced plans to gradually phase out bamboo scaffolding and shift to metal scaffolding, but this fire may accelerate that move dramatically.
- Switching from bamboo to metal scaffolding drives up both material and labor costs
- Safety-related costs are likely to increase not only for public housing but also for large-scale renovations of private condominiums
- As a result, there is a risk of delays or cancellations in renovation projects, as well as rising rents and maintenance fees
2) Spillover Effects on Insurance and Reinsurance Markets
When a high-rise residential complex suffers damage of this scale, both human and material, we can expect:
- A surge in payouts for fire insurance and construction insurance
- A reassessment across reinsurance companies based in Hong Kong and the global reinsurance market of “Asian urban disaster risk”
3) Real Estate Markets and Housing Policy
Public housing in Hong Kong is home to many socially vulnerable people, including low-income households, elderly residents, and migrant families.
- If the perception that “old housing estates = dangerous” spreads, demand for redevelopment could spike, but securing relocation sites and managing fiscal burdens will become major issues
- With real estate prices already elevated, dependency on public housing could deepen further, making “how to secure safe housing” a major challenge for the Hong Kong government
2-3. Social Impact: Questioning China’s “Governance Capacity”
Reuters has described this fire as “one of the biggest tests of China’s governance over Hong Kong.”
- Since the pro-democracy protests of 2019, political freedoms have been heavily constrained through changes to the electoral system and security laws, with the tradeoff justified as “safety, stability, and prosperity.”
- When basic residential safety is threatened as in this case, citizens may begin to question, “What was the promised stability that supposedly justified curbing political freedom?”
For instance, even in Japan’s designated major cities, high-rise housing complexes built in the 1970s–80s are aging.
As familiar examples, questions such as:
- Are current seismic standards being met?
- Are exterior tiles and pipes deteriorating?
- Are elevators and emergency exits being properly inspected?
usually stay hidden from view. The Hong Kong fire once again highlights the “risks of high-density living” for all such societies.
3. Ukraine Peace Proposals and the Crimean Bridge Verdict: Ending War Through “Words” and “Judgment”
3-1. Putin: “Could Serve as a Basis for a Future Agreement”
During a visit to Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the latest ceasefire proposal discussed between the U.S. and Ukraine in Geneva “could, overall, serve as a basis for a future agreement.”
Reportedly, this is a “revised version” of the U.S.-led “28-point peace plan” announced last week—which Ukraine criticized—after further talks in Geneva.
- According to media reports, nine articles in the original draft deemed “too pro-Russian” were removed, and some conditions on territory and security were eased
- However, the specific wording remains confidential, and it is still unclear “how far Ukraine is being asked to concede”
Putin also declared that “the Ukrainian government is illegitimate, making it legally impossible to sign a formal agreement at this time,” indicating that the road to an actual ceasefire will likely be long.
3-2. Crimean Bridge Bombing: Eight Sentenced to Life
On the same day, a military court in Rostov-on-Don in southern Russia sentenced eight defendants to life imprisonment for their involvement in the Crimean Bridge bombing in October 2022.
- The bridge is a 19-kilometer road and rail bridge linking mainland Russia and the Crimean Peninsula, and is a symbolic piece of infrastructure for Moscow
- The explosion on October 8, 2022 killed five people, caused part of the bridge to collapse, and disrupted the transport of military supplies
- Russia claims the attack was a “terrorist act organized by Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency” and alleges that explosives were hidden inside metal rolls loaded onto a truck
The defendants pleaded not guilty, saying they “had not been informed of the contents of the cargo.” The trial was held behind closed doors, and defense lawyers criticized it, saying they “were not given sufficient opportunity for rebuttal.”
3-3. Impact on Economy and Markets: Energy and Risk Premiums
The Ukraine peace framework and the Crimean Bridge verdict are also indirectly influencing financial and commodity markets.
1) Oil and Gas Markets
- With Putin acknowledging that the ceasefire proposal “could serve as a basis for a future agreement,” markets temporarily priced in the possibility of more stable medium- to long-term Russian energy supplies, pushing crude oil prices lower for a time.
- Subsequently, continued Western sanctions and Middle East tensions have kept prices in a state of “slight softening but with limited downside.”
2) Bonds, Currencies, and Equities
- Expectations of a ceasefire are generally positive for risk assets, but domestic backlash against any plan involving territorial concessions and continued political instability make it hard for markets to turn “fully risk-on.” So far, the impact on European government bonds and the euro has been limited.
- Conversely, some speculative buying may emerge in Ukrainian government bonds and currencies of neighboring emerging markets as investors try to get ahead of a “ceasefire-led reconstruction demand” scenario.
Example: Concrete Considerations for Japanese Companies
- Energy importers: They should calculate raw material costs under three scenarios for both Russia and the Middle East—“prolonged high prices,” “sharp drops,” and “heightened volatility.”
- Infrastructure, construction, and trading companies: When considering participation in reconstruction projects in Ukraine and surrounding countries, firms should create and share internal checklists covering “sanctions risk,” “security assurance,” and “trustworthiness of local partners.”
3-4. Social Impact: Expectations for Peace and the Sense of “Justice”
- The news that people deemed responsible for the Crimean Bridge attack were given life sentences is received within Russia as a symbol of “retribution and deterrence.”
- From Ukraine’s perspective, however, the attack targeted a bridge it considers “illegally constructed by Russia,” and many argue it was militarily legitimate. Competing notions of “justice” on both sides remain firmly entrenched.
In peace negotiations, beyond territory, security, and reparations, issues of “historical recognition” and “justice,” including war crimes and terrorism, cannot be avoided.
Even for those of us living in Japan, questions such as:
“How far can we compromise for peace?”
“How should we address the emotions of victims and bereaved families?”
are not merely someone else’s problems.
4. The Middle East and Papal Diplomacy: Gaza’s Winter and Pope Leo’s “Piecemeal World War” Warning
4-1. Pope Leo in Turkey: “Humanity’s Future Is in Danger”
Pope Leo, originally from the United States, warned that ongoing conflicts around the world amount to a “piecemeal Third World War” and that “the future of humanity is in danger” in comments to reporters aboard his flight to Turkey, his first overseas trip since becoming pope.
During his meeting with President Erdoğan in Turkey:
- Erdoğan praised the pope’s “astute stance on the Palestinian issue”
- Both sides reportedly agreed to cooperate on a Gaza ceasefire, stabilizing the situation in Lebanon, and supporting refugees
The pope is also scheduled to visit Lebanon afterward, where he is expected to:
- Promote interfaith dialogue in a society where Christians, Muslims, and other religions coexist
- Deliver messages of solidarity to people suffering from economic crisis and the influx of refugees
4-2. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza Continues Under Ceasefire
In Gaza, more than a month has passed since the ceasefire agreement in October, yet preparations for winter have fallen far short.
- The UN and NGOs say that, against the ceasefire commitment of “600 truckloads of aid per day,” in reality only about 145 trucks per day are entering Gaza.
- Food supplies cover only about half of what is needed, and many households survive mainly on dried grains.
- With fuel shortages, an estimated 60% of residents are “forced to burn garbage for cooking,” raising serious health concerns.
On top of that, rain has begun to fall, damaging tents and leaving many displaced people living in muddy conditions, as widely shown in media footage.
4-3. Economic and Social Impact: Balancing Reconstruction Business and Ethics
1) Stability in the Middle East and Energy Markets
- If ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon hold, the risk premium in the crude oil market will gradually decline, helping stabilize fuel prices for importing countries, including Japan.
- Conversely, if the truce collapses, there is again a risk of a broader conflict involving Israel, Iran, Lebanon, and others, which could trigger spikes in oil and gas prices.
2) Reconstruction Demand and the Role of Corporations
Reconstruction in Gaza will likely require:
- Rebuilding nearly all infrastructure—housing, roads, power, water and sewage systems, hospitals, schools, and more
- Introducing solar power, decentralized energy systems, and advanced water treatment technologies
For Japanese and European infrastructure companies, trading houses, and construction firms, this could present major business opportunities.
At the same time, however, we must consider:
- The risk that contracts or cooperation with one of the parties to the conflict could be seen as “taking sides”
- The need for careful attention to human rights, the environment, and anti-corruption measures, including worker safety and impact assessments for local residents
From an ESG (environmental, social, governance) standpoint, such caution is essential.
Example: Points Japanese Companies Should Consider
- Is the contractual counterpart free of international sanctions?
- Can local partners maintain good communication and accountability toward affected residents?
- From the project design stage, are accessibility and safety for women, children, the elderly, and people with disabilities being incorporated?
These perspectives go beyond simply “wanting to do good” and are becoming prerequisites for building long-term trust in business.
5. The World Economy, Financial Markets, and China’s “Next Move”
5-1. Stocks Rise on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes; Yen Stuck in “Intervention Zone”
Asian stock markets rose on the 27th, buoyed by expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.
- The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index was up about 0.4%
- The Nikkei 225 rose more than 1%
- U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving, but the previous day all three major indices in New York had extended gains
According to tools like CME FedWatch, markets now price in an approximately 85% chance of a 0.25% rate cut at the December meeting, up sharply from around 30% a week ago.
On the FX market, the yen remains weak against the dollar:
- Around 156 yen per dollar, a level where government/BOJ yen-buying intervention is on traders’ minds
- Verbal interventions have been frequent, with the finance minister and BOJ officials repeating that they are “prepared to take all necessary measures,” and traders remain nervous
Bitcoin temporarily climbed back into the $90,000 range, rekindling its image as a “risk asset in a rate-cut environment,” but with capital outflows from ETFs and other factors, volatility remains high.
5-2. China’s Next Industrial Strategy: “Made in China 2035”
According to an analysis by Reuters Breakingviews, China is believed to be preparing a new national industrial strategy, tentatively labeled “Made in China 2035,” as a follow-up to “Made in China 2025,” centered on AI, clean energy, 6G, quantum computing, and more.
- China already accounts for about 28.8% of global manufacturing output and is a world leader in sectors such as EVs, medical devices, and shipbuilding.
- The Xi administration aims to increase GDP from around $20 trillion to $28 trillion by 2035—a roughly 40% rise—implying annual growth of about 4%.
- However, critics warn that an export-led strategy risks exacerbating structural problems that have already surfaced, such as “overcapacity,” “insufficient domestic demand,” and a “real estate slump,” while further heightening external tensions.
What It Means for Japan and Europe
- If Chinese-made EVs and solar panels are exported in even larger volumes, price competition will intensify, putting pressure on the earnings and employment of domestic manufacturers.
- On the other hand, if cooperation and division of labor in AI, 6G, and quantum fields can be designed appropriately, new business opportunities may emerge.
Whether countries choose “decoupling” or “de-risking” will significantly reshape the industrial landscape over the next several years.
5-3. Cameroon’s Doubling Fiscal Deficit: Rebuilding Costs in the Global South
Cameroon’s government announced in its FY2026 budget plan that the fiscal deficit is expected to nearly double from 2.2% to 4.6% of GDP.
- Government spending is rising for social security, infrastructure, and public security, while revenues are lagging behind due to fluctuating commodity prices and weak tax collection.
- Talks with the IMF and World Bank are ongoing, with a key challenge being “how far development investment can continue while maintaining a sustainable level of debt.”
This is not just Cameroon’s problem: it symbolizes how many developing countries are caught between “debt burdens” and “development needs.”
Japan and other G7 countries engage these nations through infrastructure exports and ODA, but beyond “short-term contracts,” they are increasingly expected to provide support that considers “the long-term fiscal sustainability of partner countries.”
6. U.S. Democracy: Trump-Style “Retribution” and Fears of Judicial Backsliding
6-1. 470 Individuals and Organizations Targeted for “Retribution”
A special Reuters investigation reported that in his second term, President Trump has turned his campaign pledge to “punish political enemies” into a basic principle of governance, targeting at least 470 individuals and organizations with dismissals, investigations, budget cuts, disqualification, and other forms of retribution.
Targets reportedly include:
- Prosecutors and FBI/CIA personnel who were critical of the previous administration
- NGOs and research institutions advocating for the environment, human rights, and fair elections
- Major media outlets and corporate executives critical of the administration
Impact on Economy and Business
- When senior officials in administrative agencies feel they will be removed if they do not “read the president’s mind,” regulation and oversight can become arbitrary, undermining market predictability.
- If particular companies or sectors are labeled “enemies” or “allies,” investment decisions and stock prices may become overly sensitive to political news.
For example:
- If renewable energy firms and environmental groups become targets, rules on climate policy may suddenly be relaxed or altered.
- If ICT and social media companies clash with the administration, they may face intensive investigations under the pretext of antitrust or compliance enforcement.
6-2. Georgia Drops Criminal Charges Over 2020 Election Interference
Prosecutors in Georgia announced that they are dropping all criminal charges against Trump over alleged attempts to overturn the 2020 U.S. presidential election results.
- They explained that “it is unrealistic for a sitting president to appear in a state court, and continuing this litigation would be futile and unproductive.”
- Trump’s lawyers welcomed the decision, saying he “should never have been indicted in the first place.”
The move effectively weakens legal checks on the president, setting a significant precedent for future balances between politics and the judiciary.
Social Impact
- Supporters see it as “the end of a witch hunt,” while opponents fear that “equality before the law is eroding.”
- International trust in U.S. democracy and the judicial system may be affected, subtly influencing diplomatic decisions by allies and risk assessments in financial markets.
From Japan’s vantage point, any weakening of “checks on those in power and mechanisms for peaceful transfers of power” could affect the economy through exchange rates and interest rates. It is a topic worth keeping in mind not only for short-term market moves but also as a medium- to long-term risk.
7. Japan: Takaichi’s Diplomacy, Inflation-Reflective Budget, and How to Live with a Weak Yen
7-1. Trump to Takaichi: “Does Not Want Japan–China Relations to Escalate”
Regarding the November 25 phone call between Prime Minister Takaichi and President Trump, sources said that Trump told Takaichi he “does not wish to see a further deterioration in Japan–China relations.”
However, the Japanese government denied a U.S. newspaper report that “Trump advised Takaichi to refrain from provocative remarks on Taiwan,” stating that “we cannot confirm such facts.” The Chief Cabinet Secretary said, “As these are diplomatic exchanges, we will refrain from commenting beyond what has already been disclosed.”
- Prime Minister Takaichi’s remarks that “a contingency in Taiwan could constitute a situation threatening Japan’s survival” have rapidly worsened Japan–China relations.
- Meanwhile, as U.S.–China leaders move closer, Japan faces the delicate task of “maintaining the U.S.–Japan alliance while stabilizing relations with China.”
7-2. FY2026 Budget to “Appropriately Reflect Price Increases”
At the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, Prime Minister Takaichi stated that “in shifting to a growth-oriented economy, the FY2026 budget will appropriately reflect price increases.”
- For years, parts of Japan’s budget have been built around a “deflation assumption,” and even as prices and wages have risen, unit prices and labor costs for public services have often failed to catch up.
- This policy aims to better reflect in the budget the costs needed to improve working conditions for people in education, healthcare, and elderly care, and to maintain infrastructure.
However:
- Simply passing price increases into the budget risks further expansion of government bond issuance and the fiscal deficit.
- Given the interplay with rising interest rates and yen depreciation, a key question is “how long can expansionary fiscal policy be sustained?”
7-3. Weak Yen: Impact on Households and Businesses
The yen remains in the high 150s against the dollar, a range often called the “intervention zone.”
Impact on Households (Examples)
- Higher gasoline, electricity, and imported food prices
- Increased costs for overseas travel and studying abroad
- On the other hand, those holding foreign-currency assets or overseas equities may see valuation gains
Impact on Businesses (Examples)
- Exporters: While yen weakness tends to boost sales and profits, they must also consider higher raw material costs and reputational risks overseas.
- Importers: Many are forced to choose between price hikes and profit compression due to rising costs.
- SMEs: With limited access to sophisticated hedging tools, small and medium-sized enterprises are often the most vulnerable to sharp yen depreciation.
The Takaichi administration has pledged to achieve both “responsible expansionary fiscal policy” and “exchange rate stability,” but external factors such as the Hong Kong fire, Ukraine peace talks, and developments in the Middle East make the policy steering anything but simple.
8. Tips for Making Today’s News “Personal”
Lastly, here are some concrete ways to connect the news covered today to your own life and work.
8-1. Work and Career Perspective
- Hong Kong fire → In construction, real estate, urban planning, and disaster prevention, there will be growing debate about redefining the “balance between cost and safety.”
- Ukraine peace and Middle East developments → Energy, logistics, insurance, trading houses, and manufacturers will need business plans that assume multiple geopolitical scenarios.
- China’s next industrial strategy → For professionals in manufacturing, IT, automotive, and renewable energy sectors, “how to deal with China” is an unavoidable theme.
Example: Simple Actions to Start With
- Pick one news story that is most relevant to your job and list three “risks” and three “opportunities” it might pose for your company.
- Allocate just five minutes in a team meeting for a “world news sharing time.”
- Organize a semi-annual internal study session on “global trends × our business” with your department.
Even big stories about war or the global economy feel much more real once you link them to “your own work.”
8-2. Household and Investment Perspective
- Fed rate cuts, yen depreciation, and Bitcoin’s price swings are directly connected to “loan interest rates,” “deposit rates,” and “risk levels of investment products.”
Quick Checks You Can Do Now
- Check the type (fixed or variable) and remaining term of your mortgage or card loan.
- Roughly calculate “what portion of your assets are yen-denominated and what portion are foreign assets.”
- Even if you don’t invest, try to connect news about Ukraine, the Middle East, and yen weakness to questions like “why are electricity and food prices rising so easily?”
If it feels overwhelming, it’s enough to “pick just one piece of news that seems most relevant to your household or job and dig into that.”
8-3. Society and Community Perspective
- The Hong Kong fire and tent life in Gaza reveal “who becomes most vulnerable in times of disaster.”
- Trump’s retribution campaign and the information war around Ukraine peace talks relate directly to “what information we choose to trust.”
Simple Steps Close to Home
- Participate in your local government’s or condo association’s disaster drill at least once.
- Talk with family and friends about “where we would meet if we had to evacuate.”
- Make it a habit not to take political or international news on social media at face value—check the source and date.
Following world news is not just about watching distant events unfold; it can also be seen as collecting hints on how to improve our own lives and society.
Reference Links (English & Japanese)
For those who want to read more in depth, here are some of the main articles mentioned in the text. Browser translation tools make them easier to read.
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Hong Kong High-Rise Fire and China’s Governance
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Ukraine Peace Plan and Crimean Bridge Case
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Pope Leo in Turkey and Lebanon, Gaza Humanitarian Crisis
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Global Markets and China’s Next Industrial Strategy
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U.S. Politics and the Trump Administration
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Japan’s Diplomacy and Economy