European Policy: Germany’s recommendation to raise the minimum wage
1. ⚔️ Middle East Situation: Security Reinforcement and Ongoing Tensions
Following the mid-June ceasefire agreement, Iranian security forces have carried out large-scale crackdowns in Kurdish regions and elsewhere. Concerns remain over possible reprisals and impacts on maritime shipping lanes.
Western and Gulf nations continue to call for expanded humanitarian aid and ongoing diplomatic dialogue, but mutual distrust remains strong.
2. 📊 Financial Markets: Dollar Weakness & Equity Rally
U.S. Dollar: Fell approximately 2.5% in June, driven by growing expectations for Fed rate cuts and U.S. political uncertainty.
Western Stocks: STOXX 600 rose 3.2% on the month; the S&P 500 hit new year-to-date highs, supported by improved corporate earnings outlooks.
Asian Stocks: The Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, and Singapore STI all climbed, reflecting a pause in the global risk-off sentiment.
3. 🛢️ Oil & Interest Rates: Sharp Drop and Rate Cut Bets
Oil Prices: Brent crude plunged from last week’s $81 high to the $68 range, due to OPEC+ production expectations and a temporary easing of Middle East tensions.
Interest Rate Outlook: Markets now view a July Fed rate cut as almost certain, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen to around 3.6%.
4. 🌏 Asia Developments: Border Talks and Military Personnel Changes
India–China Border Talks: Following SCO summit agreements, working-level discussions have resumed on the ground. No concrete withdrawal lines have been set yet; future progress is closely watched.
Chinese Military Leadership: The Central Military Commission has replaced several senior generals—widely seen as an effort by the Xi Jinping administration to tighten control over the armed forces.
5. 🤝 Trade & Technology: Supply Stability and Corporate Earnings
U.S.–China Rare Earths Agreement: Went into effect, removing non-tariff barriers and expediting export approvals. The risk of high-tech material shortages has eased, boosting related stocks.
Corporate Highlights: Nike shares jumped 9% on the Frankfurt market, with Adidas following suit, buoyed by hopes for a recovery in Western consumer spending and improving U.S.–China relations.
6. 🇩🇪 European Policy: Germany’s Minimum Wage Proposal
Germany’s Federal Labour Commission has recommended raising the minimum wage to €14.60 per hour, aiming to strengthen purchasing power while balancing inflation control.
🔮 Future Outlook and Key Watchpoints
Stabilizing the Middle East: Effectiveness of security measures and mechanisms to maintain the ceasefire
Impact of Fed Rate Cuts: Continued dollar weakness and spillovers into asset prices
Oil Market Trajectory: Changes in supply-demand balance and potential resurgence of geopolitical risks
Asia Security: Outcomes of India–China talks and further shifts in Chinese military leadership
Multilateral Coordination: Trade and climate policy agreements at the upcoming G20 Summit
