Seven Major Global News Items on July 26, 2025, and Future Outlook

This article summarizes seven major global news items reported on July 26, 2025, and provides analysis of each situation’s economic impact and future projections.

1. U.S. Core Capital Goods Orders Unexpectedly Decline

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that June orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft fell 0.7% month-on-month. A pullback after prior quarter’s front-loading and uncertainty over additional tariffs may be weighing on corporate investment.
Future Outlook

• Continued corporate caution may exert downward pressure on GDP growth.
• A rebound in aircraft and services orders could create scope for investment recovery in the second half.

2. OPEC+ Holds Production Plan Steady

OPEC+ sources indicated they will maintain July’s production schedule, banking on seasonal summer demand and prioritizing market share recovery.
Future Outlook

• Excess supply may make oil prices more sensitive to geopolitical risks.
• If global economic slowdown fears intensify, OPEC+ may consider further cuts.

3. Oil Prices Hit Three-Week Lows

Brent crude fell 1.1% and WTI dropped 1.3%—the lowest levels in three weeks—on concerns over U.S.–China economic outlook and the decision to keep production steady.
Future Outlook

• Progress in trade talks will be key to supporting prices.
• Medium to long term, OPEC+ policy shifts and Middle East developments will determine direction.

4. German Firms Postpone or Cancel U.S. Investments

An Ifo Institute survey found about 30% of German companies have delayed U.S. investments and 15% have canceled projects, largely due to tariff policy concerns.
Future Outlook

• Reduced German investment in the U.S. may accelerate shifts to intra-EU or emerging-market allocations.
• EU fiscal stimulus and regulatory easing will be crucial to sustaining domestic investment.

5. Euro-Area Economy Firm but ECB Remains Cautious

While stable inflation and moderate growth are confirmed in the euro area, ECB officials continue to hesitate on rate cuts.
Future Outlook

• Markets may expect continued safe-asset flows and prolonged high rates.
• ECB guidance tweaks or asset-purchase restart could become focal points.

6. Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index at 13-Month High

July’s Ifo index rose to 88.6, the highest since June last year, driven by infrastructure investment optimism and political stability.
Future Outlook

• Improved business sentiment may boost midterm capital spending and hiring.
• The government may consider additional growth packages to reinforce the recovery.

7. Tokyo Core Inflation at 2.9%, Exceeding BOJ Target

Tokyo’s core CPI excluding food and energy rose 2.9% year-on-year, surpassing the BOJ’s 2% goal again.
Future Outlook

• The July BOJ meeting could signal an early rate-hike path.
• Wage trends and service-price developments will shape the timing of policy tightening.

Summary

• Financial Markets: Central bank interest-rate stances and geopolitical risks will drive equity and currency moves.
• Trade & Investment: Tariff concerns continue to reshape supply chains and investment flows.
• Energy Markets: OPEC+ policies and global demand will remain the key price determinants.
• Inflation & Sentiment Data: Upcoming readings will be pivotal for policy decisions.

Governments and businesses must implement swift, risk-aware policies and make strategic investments to navigate these complex challenges and secure stable growth.