August 4, 2025｜7 Top Global Market & Geopolitical Risk Stories & Outlook
This article selects seven key world news items reported on August 4, 2025, and provides forecasts based on their political and economic impacts.
1. U.S. July Jobs Report Misses Forecast
July nonfarm payrolls rose by 100,000, well below the 180,000 expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7%.
Outlook
- Markets will increasingly expect the Fed to hold off on rate cuts, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
- Slower wage growth may damp consumer spending and weigh on retail and other domestic-focused sectors.
2. G7 Finance Leaders Agree on Inflation Fight & Debt Sustainability
At their meeting in Italy, G7 finance ministers and central bank governors adopted a joint statement underscoring the importance of “tackling inflation and restoring fiscal health,” and pledged support for emerging markets.
Outlook
- Advanced economies may accelerate monetary policy normalization, prompting temporary capital outflows from emerging markets.
- If a multilateral support framework takes shape, it could reduce fiscal risks in developing economies and spur infrastructure investment.
3. Ukraine Pushes Russian Forces Back in Eastern Offensive
Ukrainian troops launched a limited counteroffensive in Donetsk Oblast, recapturing key supply routes. Urban infrastructure repairs are now accelerating.
Outlook
- Continued Western military aid will be decisive, benefiting defense contractors.
- Full stabilization of the front will take time, and concerns over Russian gas supply could keep pressure on energy markets.
4. China’s July PMI Data Falls Again
July’s manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2, while the services PMI slipped to 51.0, both below forecasts, highlighting a slower-than-expected recovery.
Outlook
- The government is likely to roll out additional fiscal stimulus and rate cuts to boost domestic demand.
- Investors may reallocate from domestic sectors and high-tech names, prompting portfolio adjustments.
5. OPEC+ Considers Holding Production Levels in September
Led by Saudi Arabia, OPEC+ is discussing maintaining current output cuts for September, prioritizing supply discipline amid global growth concerns.
Outlook
- If the freeze is confirmed, oil prices may continue an upward trend.
- However, if global demand weakens further, OPEC+ could revisit production cuts.
6. Record Monsoon Rains Flood Southern India
Heavy monsoon downpours in Kerala and surrounding areas have caused river overflows, displacing about 500,000 people. Urgent food and medical aid are needed.
Outlook
- Public investment in resilient infrastructure and flood defenses will increase.
- Insurers and reinsurers will accelerate updating flood-risk models and revising premiums.
7. EU to Raise Digital Services Tax to 5%
The European Commission announced plans to increase the digital services tax on large platforms from 3% to 5%, effective 2026.
Outlook
- Tech firms will need to rethink pricing and may pass costs on to consumers or adjust services.
- If the OECD advances a global minimum tax framework, similar measures may spread to other regions.
Summary
- Monetary Policy: Weak U.S. employment data heightens rate-cut expectations and may spur capital shifts out of emerging markets.
- Geopolitical Risks: Developments in Ukraine and energy supply remain persistent market drivers.
- Climate Crises: Extreme weather events like India’s monsoon floods will shape public spending and insurance themes.
- Regulatory Trends: The EU’s digital tax overhaul will influence global tech strategies.
Governments and companies must swiftly formulate flexible policies and investment strategies to navigate these layered risks and seize new growth opportunities.