World Major News Roundup for November 12, 2025: U.S. Government Shutdown Heads for Pivotal House Vote in Record-Long Standoff, Prolonged Disruptions on U.S. Domestic Flights, Aftershocks of the MD-11 Grounding, Tensions Rise at COP30 over “Finance × Forests × Implementation”, Talks Continue on Proposal for an International Stabilization Force in Gaza, Fighting Intensifies Around Pokrovsk — Crude Around $65 / $61, Gold in the $4,120s, European Stocks Near Record Highs

Start with the “3-minute overview” (Wed, 11/12 – Tokyo time)

• United States: Federal Government Shutdown has reached Day 42. The House is expected to vote today on a compromise bill that would end what is now the longest shutdown on record. If passed, it will secure government funding through January 30 and is expected to include provisions to continue SNAP (food assistance). Markets are firm on hopes of reopening.
• Air travel: A combination of ATC staffing shortages × the shutdown is driving a steady rise in cancellations and delays. On Tuesday alone, 1,200 flights were canceled, and business aviation (GA) was restricted at 12 airports. Full normalization this week is seen as unlikely.
• Aviation & logistics: Following the UPS MD-11 crash, the FAA has banned MD-11 flights. UPS and FedEx have grounded all MD-11s, and detailed review of the CVR/FDR data and maintenance history is ongoing. There is now a noticeable squeeze in year-end air cargo capacity.
• COP30 (Belém): There were clashes involving indigenous groups in front of the venue, temporarily forcing the entrance to close. Negotiations are continuing, with climate finance, forests, and implementation (MRV) becoming the main battlegrounds.
• Middle East: A U.S.-drafted proposal for a “Gaza International Stabilization Force (two-year mandate)” is under continued deliberation at the UN Security Council. The World Bank has expressed its intention to support the plan. Reaching a consensus remains difficult.
• Ukraine: Around Pokrovsk, house-to-house fighting continues, and footage shows Russian infiltration using “Mad Max-style” convoys. Maintaining urban functionality through the winter is a key challenge.
• Markets: Crude is flat around Brent $65.1 / WTI $61.0, while gold is holding firm around $4,125. European equities are near record highs, U.S. stock futures are up, and the yen is weaker around 154.9 per dollar.

Who will find this article especially useful? (Concrete reader profiles)

• Corporate management, CFOs, SCM/procurement, logistics, PR/IR teams
  Just ahead of the year-end shopping season, this article summarizes air capacity tightening (flight cuts × MD-11 grounding), data gaps, modest commodity moves, and regulatory/financial pressure from COP30, with a focus on how to translate them into operational workflows.
• Central and local government, healthcare, education, humanitarian organizations/NPOs
  We provide ready-to-use templates for SNAP policy uncertainty, travel and logistics disruptions, humanitarian access to Gaza, and safety management for schools and places of worship, including “single windows / priority slots / multilingual paper-based communication”.
• Individual investors, travelers, and business trip coordinators
  In an environment of gold ↑, crude flat, equities ↑, yen weaker, we suggest incorporating regular checks on three-sided sensitivities: rates ±50 bp / USDJPY ±3 yen / crude ±$5 into your routine reviews. For travel, treat +45 minutes for connections and ±72 hours free rebooking as standard-built-in assumptions.

1 | U.S. Government Shutdown: Day 42, House Vote Today — Reopening Hopes Lift Markets

Where politics stands now
The government reopening bill already passed by the Senate is expected to be put to a vote in the House today (local time). The bill provides government funding through January 30 next year, paving the way for restoration of administrative services hit by the shutdown and resumption of official data releases. It also includes provisions for the continued operation of SNAP, aiming to ease immediate concerns over livelihoods. Markets see the shutdown as “close to an end”, and risk appetite is broadening.

Implications for the economy and society

• Households / retail: The pattern of a “demand dip at the start of the month → rebound in the middle” is likely to persist through November. We can expect higher sales shares of low-priced private brands, increased use of cash payments, and sustained high demand for food banks.
• Corporate disclosure: With a gap in official data, it is more realistic for IR teams to present “range forecasts + alternative indicators (card payments, freight tracking data)”. Proactively flagging the risk of revisions once official data resumes in the notes can lead to smoother dialogue.
• Markets: U.S. stock futures are up, and European equities are near record highs. Gold remains around $4,125, supported by a combination of “risk hedge + expectations of rate cuts”. The yen has softened to around 154.9 per dollar, which is a tailwind for exporters and inbound-related names.

“Starting today” frontline actions (for local governments and retailers)

“Final decisions on SNAP are still being made during deliberations and votes. We will continue to provide information to residents via printed materials in multiple languages. Please make use of our special shelves for ‘shelf-stable × low-price × private brands’, paper coupons, and the food bank service counter.” (Example of in-store notice)

2 | Air Travel: Normalization This Week Seen as Unlikely — 1,200 Flight Cancellations, Partial Business Aviation Restrictions

Current numbers and operations

• Operations: On Tuesday alone, 1,200 flights were canceled. ATC (air traffic control) staffing shortages persist, and charters and business aviation face temporary suspensions or restrictions at 12 airports. The consensus is that full normalization this week will be difficult.
• Planned flight cuts: In line with government requests, phased reductions (4% → 6% → 10% on the 14th) are in place at 40 airports, and the warning of possible 20% cuts has not been withdrawn.

Translating this into business and daily life

• Logistics: Competition for nonstop flight slots is intensifying, and the shift from consolidated to nonstop is raising costs. Realistic measures include bringing forward “delivery guarantee dates” and actively using alternative airports.
• Travel / MICE: Risks of cancellations and delays are amplified during weekend peaks (Fri evening – Mon morning). To maintain satisfaction, codify in internal rules that you will allow ±72-hour free rebooking and ensure at least +45 minutes buffer for connections.

Ready-to-use notification template (for travel, e-commerce, and airline sales)

“We will send a single consolidated notice 48 hours before departure, covering: priority on nonstop flights, automatic suggestions of alternative airports (e.g., DCA/BWI, BOS/PVD), ±72 hours free rebooking, and bringing forward delivery guarantee dates.”

3 | Aviation & Logistics: Aftermath of the Full MD-11 Grounding — Prepare for 2–3 Weeks of Air Cargo “Congestion”

Confirmed facts and investigation focus

• Regulation: The FAA has banned MD-11 flights (until inspections are complete). UPS and FedEx have temporarily grounded all MD-11s and are rolling out alternative operational plans.
• Investigation: In the UPS crash, CVR/FDR data indicate warning sounds were active right up to the final moments, and investigators are focusing on maintenance records. A preliminary report is expected in about 30 days.

Practical responses for supply chains

• Capacity constraints: With phased flight cuts (up to ~10%) × MD-11 grounding overlapping, available capacity will be tight for the next 2–3 weeks. To prevent bottlenecks, start front-loading pickups of high-turnover SKUs, inter-warehouse transfers, and switching from consolidated to nonstop flights.
• Contracts and insurance: Clarify in a temporary memorandum how detour costs and demurrage will be shared. For business interruption (BI), work early to secure a framework for provisional payments, and compress the time lag related to SLA deterioration.
• Customer notification template

  “For air cargo within the United States, we currently expect delays of +1–3 business days (latest regional estimates are updated on our dashboard). We will share a memorandum today specifying priority on nonstop flights, use of alternative airports, and the scope of detour costs borne by our company.”

Re-examining safety culture (internal)

• “A major incident is a signal to review contracts”: Standardize KPIs related to heavy maintenance / major overhauls, external contractors, and parts traceability across insurance, procurement, and operations. Move to a regime where monthly reviews focus on logs, not just paperwork.

4 | COP30 (Belém): “Three-Way Contest” of Finance × Forests × Implementation (MRV) — What the Clashes Outside the Venue Revealed

What happened on the ground
Indigenous demonstrators surged toward the venue entrance, leading to brief clashes. There were minor injuries, but negotiations themselves have continued, and the entrance is scheduled to reopen today. Issues such as “land protection” and “checks on resource development” have returned to the forefront.

Core battlefields in the negotiations

• Finance: How loss and damage (L&D) funds, transition finance, and natural capital will be supplied — who provides them, when, and under what conditions.
• Forests: Protection of forests including the Amazon and stronger supply chain traceability. How to “visualize” forest-risk commodities (timber, beef, soy, palm oil, etc.).
• Implementation (MRV): Building an operational loop for measurement, reporting, and verification using satellites × ground sensors, in order to curb fraud and greenwashing.

Translating this into corporate actions (designs you can start now)

• Decarbonization accounting: Begin broad but shallow calculations through Category 11/15, and pilot MRV in collaboration with external partners.
• Forest-risk due diligence (DD): Expand the scope of suppliers’ geolocation data + third-party audit logs from tier 1 to tier 2. Design a grievance redress mechanism (GRM) and set a goal of obtaining third-party assurance by FY2026.
• Tourism and local communities: In indigenous tourism, clearly spell out policies for fair compensation and safety, and avoid “taking home only photos” without equitable returns.

5 | Middle East: UNSC Negotiations Continue on a Two-Year Gaza “International Stabilization Force” — Single Windows × Priority Slots × Audits as a Common Language for “Humanitarian Work and Insurance”

Where the debates stand now
The U.S.-drafted UN Security Council resolution would grant a two-year mandate to a provisional governing body + International Stabilization Force (ISF). The World Bank has issued a letter supporting the draft, signaling a potential catalyst for funding. Yet questions over the range of participating countries, withdrawal timelines, and legal frameworks mean forging a consensus will still take time.

From humanitarian aid to logistics and insurance: how to implement it

• Single window: Integrate permits, access, and throughput and process medical supplies, nutrition, and power equipment through priority slots.
• Third-party audits: Have independent auditors verify and publish logs on “number of consignments processed / delays / confiscations”, and use this transparency to negotiate step-by-step reductions in war-risk premiums and port fees.
• Sample contract clause (forwarder → shipper)

  “We will dual-source ports and warehouses and set security and delay thresholds that automatically trigger detours. War-risk premiums will be reduced stepwise, linked to KPIs. Priority cargo includes medical supplies, nutrition, and power equipment.”

6 | Ukraine: Pokrovsk Fighting Has Become House-to-House — Winter Supply Lines Are Key

Latest developments
Videos showing Russian penetration, including “Mad Max-style” vehicle columns, are emerging one after another. Ukraine continues to defend while denying encirclement claims. The focus is on maintaining supply lines connected to the rear areas of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Field-level hints (for companies and local governments)

• Power operations: Build two-layer redundancy with distributed power sources + emergency generators, and shift non-operational days to flatten peak demand.
• Transparency: Publish damage and recovery maps over time, and use them to improve terms for reinsurance and reconstruction funding.
• Public outreach: Combine analog media and in-person visits to ensure vulnerable populations are not left behind.

7 | Markets: Crude Flat, Gold Around $4,125, Equities in Risk-On Mode, Yen Around 154.9

• Crude: After digesting the previous day’s gains, prices are moving in a narrow range, with Brent around $65.1 and WTI around $61.0. Hopes for U.S. government reopening are feeding expectations of rebound in jet fuel demand.
• Gold: Holding around $4,125. While markets are in “wait-and-see” mode before the House vote, rate-cut expectations are providing support.
• Equities: European equities are near record highs, and U.S. stock futures are up. Hopes for an end to the shutdown and a rebound in AI-related names are pushing markets higher.
• FX: USD/JPY is around 154.9, with the yen weaker. Despite ongoing verbal interventions by Japanese authorities, expectations of U.S. reopening × rate views are supporting the dollar.

Mini-checklist for investors

1. Update your P/L sensitivity ranges for rates ±50 bp / USDJPY ±3 yen / crude ±$5.
2. Structure fuel and freight using a combination of index-linkage + caps + a 3/6/9/12-month maturity ladder, and automate the management of P/L volatility.
3. Check for second-order effects on the AI supply chain (power, cooling, real estate).

8 | “Ready-to-Use” Templates for 7 Sectors

A | Retail (U.S. subsidiaries)

• Challenge: SNAP uncertainty and mobility constraints are keeping early-month demand dips in place.
• Operations: For the first 3 days of each month, move shelf-stable × low-priced × private brand items to the front, use same-day markdowns via electronic shelf labels, keep paper coupons always available, and place food bank shelves near the entrance. In your FAQ, describe “the impact of the shutdown and the rationale for price changes.”
• Sample wording:

  “SNAP operations are still being decided during ongoing deliberations and voting. Please use our special shelves for shelf-stable, low-price, private brand products, as well as our paper coupons. The food bank service counter is located next to the main customer service desk.”

B | E-commerce, shippers, forwarders

• Challenge: Phased flight cuts (up to ~10%) × full MD-11 grounding are tightening air cargo capacity.
• Operations: Shift from consolidated to nonstop, front-load pickups for high-turnover SKUs, use inter-warehouse transfers, document detour costs and demurrage in memoranda, and update delay dashboards twice a week.
• Sample wording:

  “Due to our policy of prioritizing nonstop flights and using alternative airports, we currently expect delays of +1–3 business days. We will continuously update our dashboard with affected regions and recovery projections.”

C | Travel, business trips, MICE

• Challenge: Over 1,000 daily cancellations, partial restrictions on business aviation, and little chance of full normalization this week.
• Operations: Make +45 minutes for connections an internal requirement; avoid weekend peaks; treat alternative airports (DCA/BWI, BOS/PVD, etc.) as equivalent; and make ±72 hours free rebooking the standard.
• Sample wording:

  “We will send a single consolidated notice 48 hours before departure, including priority on nonstop flights, automatic suggestions for alternative airports, ±72-hour free rebooking, and bringing forward delivery guarantee dates.”

D | Manufacturing, equipment, materials (with fuel and freight indexation)

• Challenge: Even with crude at $65/$61, headlines still move expectations sharply.
• Operations: Design surcharges as index-linked + capped + maturity-laddered, and update a sensitivity table for crude ±$5 on a monthly basis.

E | Humanitarian and medical (Gaza)

• Challenge: As the ISF proposal is implemented, permit rules and throughput will change.
• Operations: Promote single windows × priority slots (medical, nutrition, power) and use publication of third-party audit logs to negotiate stepwise reductions in insurance premiums and port fees.

F | Sustainability (COP30)

• Challenge: The “implementation pressure” of finance × forests × MRV.
• Operations: Pilot outsourcing of MRV before year-end, design forest-risk DD combining geolocation data + GRM, and set a target of third-party assurance by FY2026.

G | Finance and IR

• Challenge: Missing official data and worsening SLAs are increasing the burden of explanation.
• Operations: Present range forecasts based on alternative data, and note the risk of revisions after the shutdown ends in the footnotes. Translate COP30’s key agreements into your own KPIs (MRV, DD, GRM) and present them clearly.

9 | Checklist: Small PDCA Cycles You Can “Start Running Today”

• Mobility / transport: Standardize priority on nonstop flights / +45 minutes for connections / ±72-hour free rebooking. Clearly codify treating alternative airports as equivalent.
• Inventory / procurement: Use a combination of 3/6/9/12-month maturity ladders × 20% exposure per supplier to diversify concentration risk.
• Fuel / freight: Manage P/L volatility mechanically using index-linkage + caps + maturity ladders.
• PR / customers: Update delay dashboards twice a week, and clearly explain in your FAQ how the shutdown, flight cuts, and MD-11 grounding affect operations and compensation.
• Humanitarian work: Combine single windows × priority slots × third-party audits to balance speed and transparency (Gaza).
• Sustainability: Translate COP30’s “finance, forests, implementation” into internal KPIs and link them to next year’s investment plans.

10 | Today’s Essence (Summary)

1. On Day 42 of the shutdown, a House vote brings an end into view. A compromise bill including SNAP continuation provisions will lead to gradual restoration of data releases and administrative services. Explanations should rely on “ranges + alternative data.”
2. In air travel, there have been 1,200 cancellations and business aviation restrictions at 12 airports, and full normalization this week is unlikely. More nonstops, alternative airports, and ±72-hour rebooking are your safeguards for both travel and logistics.
3. With the MD-11 flight ban, air cargo capacity will be tight for 2–3 weeks. Reduce bottlenecks via front-loaded pickups, detour-cost clauses, and provisional payments.
4. At COP30, finance × forests × implementation are the main battlefields. The clashes outside the venue highlight the weight of “rights and transparency.” Start designing MRV, forest-risk DD, and GRM now.
5. In the Gaza stabilization force proposal, single windows + priority slots + audits serve as a common language for humanitarian operations and insurance. Consensus-building will still be bumpy.
6. Around Pokrovsk, the fight for supply lines is becoming a war of attrition. Two-layer power redundancy and open recovery maps can strengthen urban resilience.
7. Markets show flat crude, firm gold, higher equities, and a weaker yen. Use three-sided sensitivities and automated surcharge design to achieve “explainable P/L” and robust operations.