November 26, 2025 – Where Is the World Heading?

From the Hong Kong High-Rise Fire and Ukraine Peace Plan to Gaza Floods, Mediterranean Gas, and New Trade Frictions

1. Quick Summary of the Day’s Global Flashpoints

On November 26, 2025, a series of developments at the intersection of geopolitics and economics unfolded around the world. This article is especially useful for:

• Business leaders and overseas business managers who want to understand how global events affect their companies
• Individual and institutional investors who want to read medium-term trends in FX, equities, and commodities
• Consultants and professionals involved in international projects in energy, infrastructure, reconstruction, and related fields
• Students and researchers in international politics, security, and development economics
• General readers who want to see news not as isolated “dots” but as part of a “global picture”

Let’s first list the main topics of the day:

• Major high-rise residential fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong
  A fire broke out in a 31-story public housing block under renovation, covered in bamboo scaffolding, killing at least 31 people. It raises serious questions about building safety in high-density cities and how renovation investment is done.

• Ukraine peace proposal found to rely on “Russian document”
  A 28-point peace plan backed by the United States was found to have drawn heavily from a Russian “non-paper.” This revelation is shaking trust in the peace process and casting a shadow over the stance of Western countries in negotiations with Moscow.

• Heavy rains flood tents in Gaza, while the Palestinian economy faces “worst collapse on record”
  After two years of war and blockade, the economies of Gaza and the West Bank have lost decades of growth, while torrential rain has washed away refugee tents. A humanitarian crisis and economic collapse are unfolding simultaneously.

• Lebanon and Cyprus reach maritime border agreement after nearly 20 years
  A “historic agreement” that paves the way for development of offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean. It offers new options both for Europe’s diversification away from Russian energy and for Lebanon’s economic reconstruction.

• Trump administration’s tariffs on China hit U.S. small retailers ahead of the holiday season
  Swings in tariff rates are disrupting supply chains, causing inventory shortages and higher costs. As a result, more than one-third of small firms face a high risk of bankruptcy.

• Senegal “lightens” its apparent debt burden by recalculating GDP
  A rebasing of national accounts increased the size of the economy by 13.5%, improving the debt-to-GDP ratio. But since the actual repayment burden is unchanged, the gap between “how the numbers look” and reality is under debate.

We’ll now look at these issues in more detail, including their economic and social implications.

2. High-Rise Fire in Tai Po, Hong Kong: Aging Infrastructure Risk in High-Density Cities

Overview of the Fire and Conditions on the Ground

A major fire broke out on the afternoon of November 26 at a high-rise public housing estate in Tai Po, in northern Hong Kong, believed to be One Fok Court. According to reports, fire spread across 7 of the estate’s 8 residential blocks (each 31 stories, totaling around 2,000 units). At least 31 people, including one firefighter, were killed and more than 10 were injured.

The estate was undergoing major renovation, and the building exteriors were completely covered in bamboo scaffolding. Bamboo scaffolding is still widely used in Hong Kong. In March, authorities had just announced plans to phase it out on safety grounds and to make metal scaffolding mandatory for about half of all public works.

In this fire, the bamboo scaffolding is believed to have acted as fuel, fanning flames and thick black smoke in strong winds. Witnesses reported seeing it collapse in several places. Many residents were trapped on higher floors, and rescue operations using helicopters and aerial ladders continued late into the night, reportedly under extremely difficult conditions.

Economic Impact: Construction, Insurance, and Real Estate

This incident is more than just a single accident. It could have ripple effects across multiple sectors of Hong Kong’s economy.

1. Review of Construction and Renovation Investment

   • Mounting criticism of bamboo scaffolding’s safety could accelerate a switch to metal scaffolding, pushing up construction costs in the short term.
   • For not only public housing but also aging private apartment complexes, higher insurance premiums and safety measures could increase renovation costs, causing delays or cancellations of repair projects.

2. Burden on Insurance and Reinsurance Markets

   • The deaths, injuries, and large-scale property damage in a high-rise residential complex are likely to result in substantial payouts on fire and construction insurance.
   • Hong Kong is one of Asia’s reinsurance hubs, so adjustments to premiums and underwriting standards there could affect projects across the wider region.

3. Spillovers to the Real Estate Market and Housing Policy

   • Public housing has played a crucial role in absorbing low- and middle-income residents in the face of overcrowding and sky-high housing prices in Hong Kong.
   • If this fire fuels a perception that “old estates = dangerous,” demand for redevelopment and rebuilding may rise, while residents’ anxiety may lead to greater social frustration.
   • Redevelopment requires massive investment and could impact government finances and the funding plans of the Housing Authority.

Social Impact: Exposing “Invisible Inequalities” in the City

Hong Kong’s public estates are home to large numbers of elderly people, single occupants, and migrant worker families who are often in vulnerable social positions. Reports say many of those who failed to escape were elderly.

• Gaps in Disaster Preparedness and Evacuation Training
  International studies show that income, language, and educational differences affect access to disaster information and evacuation behavior.
• Shortage of Mental Health Support
  Those who suddenly lose their homes must rebuild not only their housing but also work, school, and healthcare arrangements. Hong Kong’s mental health system is widely considered underdeveloped, and providing long-term psychological support will be a major challenge.

Across Asian megacities including Japan, there are many high-rise housing complexes built between the 1970s and 1990s. This fire has made visible a common risk shared by “high-density cities with aging infrastructure.”

3. Ukraine Peace Plan and the “Russian Document”: Diplomatic Credibility Under Strain

28-Point Peace Plan, Based on a Russian “Non-Paper”

According to an exclusive report by Reuters, a 28-point peace plan for ending the war in Ukraine—backed by the United States—drew heavily on a document submitted by Russia to the Trump administration in October, described as a “non-paper.”

• That Russian document is said to include demands such as broad territorial concessions in eastern Ukraine to Russia—conditions that Ukraine has consistently rejected.
• The existence of the document had been reported earlier, but this is the first time it has been confirmed as a “major input to the U.S.-drafted plan.”

The U.S. State Department and the Russian and Ukrainian embassies in Washington have declined to comment. However, several U.S. officials reportedly believed from the outset that “Ukraine would reject the first draft.”

Moves Inside the Trump Administration and Contacts with Russia

The report also says the peace plan was discussed when Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner met with heads of Russian state-controlled funds in Miami.

• In a public statement, President Trump said he would send special envoy Witkoff to Moscow for a meeting with President Putin, and at the same time dispatch Army Secretary Driscoll to talk with the Ukrainian side.
• But critics point out that many key State Department and White House staff were not fully informed about these contacts, raising questions about transparency in the decision-making process.

For its part, Russia has harshly condemned leaks related to the peace plan as “part of hybrid warfare,” calling for cautious analysis.

Implications for Markets: Peace “Hopes” vs. Reality

This news is casting a subtle shadow over financial markets.

• Some investors had hoped that a path to peace was emerging, and anticipated corrections in energy prices and defense stocks.
• The revelation that the plan was “built on a Russia-leaning blueprint,” however, has increased doubts about its viability.

European defense and energy stocks may see adjustments as markets temper overly optimistic “peace hopes.” For Ukrainian sovereign bonds and currencies in neighboring emerging markets, ongoing uncertainty over a settlement may keep risk premia elevated.

Social and Political Impact: Distrust Among Allies and Information Warfare

• Backlash in Ukrainian Public Opinion
  If a plan that presupposes territorial concessions is presented as a “partner-led peace proposal,” it could severely erode trust in the government and sour attitudes toward the U.S.
• European Concerns
  European countries are increasingly uneasy about entrusting the fate of a war directly affecting their security to backchannel deals between Washington and Moscow.
• Escalation of Information Warfare
  This kind of leak battle is a textbook example of attempts to sway international opinion. In a world where fact and spin are deeply entangled, citizens need higher levels of information literacy to decide what to believe.

For Japan too, the war in Ukraine is directly tied to energy prices and food security. How the “invisible bargaining” around peace is resolved will be a major factor in any scenario for the future global economy.

4. Gaza Rains and Palestinian Economic Collapse: The Challenge of Post-War Reconstruction

Heavy Rains Flood Tents, Making for a Harsh Winter in IDP Camps

After two years of war between Israel and Hamas, many residents of Gaza who lost their homes still live in tents or makeshift shelters. On November 25, torrential rains hit the area, flooding and sweeping away many tents.

• Of Gaza’s roughly 2 million residents, a large majority have been driven from their homes, with at least around 1.5 million still living as internally displaced persons.
• Water levels reportedly rose to 40–50 centimeters in some areas, submerging thousands of tents. Field hospitals set up outdoors were also flooded and temporarily forced to close.
• Local NGO networks say at least 300,000 new tents are urgently needed.

The UN is trying to deliver winter relief supplies, but the number of aid trucks allowed in under the ceasefire deal has not increased as hoped due to Israeli restrictions, slowing delivery to those in need. Israel insists it is accepting aid “at the level agreed,” while Hamas claims “the promised volume of supplies is not arriving,” and both sides continue to shift blame for the humanitarian aid shortfall.

UN Report: Palestinian Economy Facing “Worst Collapse on Record”

A UN body reports that the war in Gaza and Israeli economic restrictions have brought the Palestinian economy to the “worst collapse since records began,” wiping out nearly all growth achieved over past decades.

• Infrastructure in Gaza—power grid, water and sewage, hospitals, schools, roads—has been devastated. Some estimates put reconstruction costs in the tens of billions of dollars.
• In the West Bank, movement restrictions and settlement expansion are also stifling economic activity, driving job losses and deepening poverty.

Economic and Social Impact: Tension Between Reconstruction Business and Ethics

1. Huge Reconstruction Needs, Difficult Financing

   • Housing, infrastructure, healthcare, education—virtually every sector needs rebuilding. Yet the Palestinian Authority’s fiscal capacity is fragile, making self-financed reconstruction nearly impossible.
   • Support from international institutions, Gulf states, Europe, Japan, and others will be essential, but political conditions and relations with Israel make funding decisions complicated.

2. Business Opportunity or Humanitarian Duty?

   • Companies involved in construction, infrastructure, renewable energy, and water treatment may see Gaza’s reconstruction as a massive business opportunity.
   • At the same time, issues like relationships with conflict parties, transparency of tenders, and human rights due diligence raise ethical concerns. A purely profit-driven approach is likely to draw criticism.

3. Regional Stability and Refugee Outflows

   • Extended economic collapse risks spreading unemployment and despair, especially among young people, potentially fueling violence and radicalization.
   • Pressure for refugee and migrant flows to neighboring states and Europe will grow, further straining countries already at or beyond their perceived capacity.

If, for example, Japanese companies become involved in water treatment plants or renewable energy projects, they could be recognized as playing a positive “reconstruction support” role. But they will need to handle contract terms with conflict parties, safety, and human rights due diligence more carefully than ever. The era of just “going where the projects are” is over.

5. Lebanon–Cyprus Maritime Deal: A New Step for East Mediterranean Gas

A “Historic Agreement” Two Decades in the Making

On November 26, Lebanon and Cyprus finally agreed on their maritime boundary after nearly 20 years of deadlock.

• The two sides initially drafted an agreement in 2007, but Lebanon postponed ratification citing disputes with Israel and internal political turmoil.
• In 2022, under U.S. mediation, a maritime boundary agreement between Lebanon and Israel was finally reached, paving the way for the current Lebanon–Cyprus deal.

Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides called it a “historic agreement,” and Lebanese President Michel Aoun said it represents “a clear invitation to all nations that wish to cooperate.”

Europe’s Energy Security and Lebanon’s Economic Reconstruction

1. Gas Supply Routes for a Europe Seeking to Wean Itself off Russian Energy

Gas fields off Cyprus are estimated to hold around 20 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, some of which could reach European markets as early as 2027 according to reports.

• For Europe, which wants to reduce dependence on Russian gas, the Eastern Mediterranean is an important alternative supply source.
• By clarifying the maritime border with Lebanon, Cyprus can proceed with exploration and development in new offshore blocks.

2. Hopes and Realities for Crisis-Stricken Lebanon

Lebanon’s long-running financial crisis and currency collapse have rapidly impoverished the population. In theory, offshore gas offers a potential lifeline for earning foreign currency and rebuilding public finances. But:

• Political instability
• Concerns about corruption
• Tensions with Israel and Syria

all raise the perceived risk for investors.

Implications for Japan and Asia

• In the LNG market, additional supply from the Eastern Mediterranean could help stabilize prices, which would be positive for importers like Japan and other Asian countries.
• However, Israel continues to carry out airstrikes in southern Lebanon, and clashes persist despite ceasefire deals. There is a constant risk of escalation into large-scale conflict.

For companies and investors, the region is “high potential but also extremely high-risk” in terms of politics and security.

6. Trade, Fiscal Policy, and Statistics: How “Numbers” Relate to Everyday Life in the U.S., U.K., and Africa

U.S.–China Tariffs and the Struggles of Small Retailers: Inventory Shortages and Margin Squeeze

In the United States, President Trump’s tariff policy shifts toward China are hitting small retailers hard.

• New York-based sleep brand Loftie imports many core products from China. When it was signaled that tariffs could be raised up to 180%, the firm had little choice but to shift production to countries like Thailand.
• When the rate was later revised down to 20%, the company was stuck in a dilemma: either a “new production site with higher costs” or “sticking with China under higher tariffs,” both meaning higher overall costs. The firm eventually returned to Chinese suppliers, but ordering was delayed in the process, leaving inventories at about 10% of needed levels ahead of the holiday season.

Many other small businesses are facing similar dilemmas. One analytics firm estimates that:

• Operating margins for retailers with assets under $50 million have fallen to –20.7%, and
• 36% of these firms face a high risk of bankruptcy.

By contrast, large players like Walmart and Costco can leverage scale to secure better sourcing terms and pass on costs, cushioning the blow.

For Japanese SMEs, key takeaways include:

• The importance of diversifying supply chains in anticipation of sudden changes in tariffs and regulations
• The need for scenario analysis of FX and logistics costs as part of routine risk management

Senegal’s GDP Recalculation: Better Numbers, Same Debt Burden

Senegal in West Africa announced that after updating its GDP base year from 2014 to 2021, its 2021 GDP is now 13.5% higher than previously reported, improving the debt-to-GDP ratio from 90.8% to 80%.

This “rebasing” is an internationally recognized method to reflect new sectors—such as digital finance, oil and gas, and cashew processing—but:

• The actual debt stock and interest payments are unchanged, and
• When compared to figures used historically by the IMF, debt remains high.

Many experts warn of a gap between “optics” and reality.

International markets have reacted in a mixed way:

• The improved numbers provide a mild boost to ratings and investor sentiment, but
• Skepticism lingers over whether statistical adjustments are masking underlying debt problems.

U.K.’s Tax-Heavy Budget and Japanese PM Takaichi’s Rejection of a “Truss Shock” Scenario

In the U.K., Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled a budget plan with tens of billions of pounds in tax hikes, signaling a strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.

On the same day, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in her first party leaders’ debate:

• Rejected opposition claims that yen depreciation and rising interest rates were a “warning shot” against fiscal profligacy under her government, and
• Stressed that “this year’s government bond issuance is smaller than last year” and that “fiscal sustainability is what we care about most.”

She also pushed back against opposition attempts to compare her to former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss—known for sparking a bond market panic—rather than the late Margaret Thatcher, whom Takaichi openly admires:

• Takaichi argued that Japan’s current account structure is fundamentally different from the U.K.’s, and that “Japan is not in a situation like the Truss shock.”

From this we can see:

• U.K.: Moving toward fiscal consolidation via tax hikes amid inflation and weak growth
• Japan: Emphasizing growth while pledging fiscal discipline and leaving room for “necessary measures” on FX and interest rates

Yet the core question—how to manage large public debt and rising rate risks—remains a common challenge for all advanced economies.

7. What Different Audiences Can Learn from These Stories

The global news on November 26 may seem unrelated at first glance, but several themes run through them:

• Urban vulnerability where aging infrastructure meets climate risk (Hong Kong, Gaza)
• Geopolitics and economic crises around energy and resources (Lebanon & Cyprus, Palestine)
• How “policy through numbers” (tariffs, statistics, tax and budget policy) directly affects households and business operations (U.S., U.K., Senegal, Japan)
• Strains in allied trust driven by information warfare and opaque diplomacy (Ukraine peace plan)

For Business Leaders and Professionals

• Companies with overseas production or supply chains must assume that tariff, FX, and political risks can all move at once, and prepare medium- to long-term scenarios accordingly.
• In infrastructure, construction, and energy businesses, not only profitability but also safety, environmental performance, and human rights are key factors in contracts and evaluations.

For example, if a mid-size Japanese manufacturer has production bases in both China and Southeast Asia, it should:

• Make production processes and quality standards interchangeable so that production can be shifted quickly if tariffs suddenly spike, and
• Set local safety and construction standards at levels stricter than in Japan to reduce accident risks in advance.

Such preparations will become increasingly important.

For Investors

• News about Ukraine peace prospects and developments in the Middle East has a direct impact on energy prices, defense-related stocks, and risk premia on emerging market bonds.
• But in cases like this, where it later emerges that a “peace plan” is based on a Russia-leaning document, there will be more situations where headline news alone is an unreliable guide.

From an ESG investing perspective:

• Evaluating companies involved in reconstruction in Gaza or Lebanon
• Watching how international institutions support African countries in statistical reform and fiscal transparency

can be key to reconciling long-term financial returns with positive social impact. It requires close attention to what is happening “behind the scenes” of conflicts and crises.

For General Readers, Students, and Researchers

• The Hong Kong fire and Gaza floods are an opportunity to think about the lives of people “behind the news footage,” not just the shocking images.
• Cases in Lebanon and Senegal show that seemingly abstract topics like “statistics” or “border lines” are actually intimately connected to everyday life.

Possible class or research themes include:

• “How East Mediterranean gas will reshape the EU’s energy map”
• “Tariff policy and bankruptcy risk among small businesses”
• “The ethics of post-war reconstruction business”

All of these can be fruitfully explored from perspectives such as economics, international relations, and development studies.

8. Conclusion: November 26, 2025 as a Node Where Crisis and Reordering Intersect

To conclude, let’s summarize the key points these stories highlight:

1. Balancing Physical Safety and Economic Efficiency

   • The Hong Kong fire shows how a low-cost traditional method (bamboo scaffolding) can become a fatal risk in today’s high-rise, high-density urban environment.
   • We’re in an era where “cheap and fast” is no longer enough; the question is how far to go in investing in safety.

2. The Hidden Side of Peace Negotiations and Information Warfare

   • The Russian document behind the Ukraine peace plan underscores that many interests and bargaining moves are playing out behind the “official statements” we see.
   • Individuals need to cultivate the ability to consult multiple sources and not take media reports at face value.

3. Humanitarian Crises and Economic Collapse Happening in Parallel

   • The floods in Gaza highlight that the damage from war does not stop with the end of armed conflict. Infrastructure breakdown and prolonged economic stagnation can last for generations.

4. Resources, Statistics, and Tax Systems as “Politics by Numbers”

   • Gas reserves off Lebanon and Cyprus, Senegal’s GDP rebasing, the U.K.’s tax-heavy budget, and Japan’s debates over fiscal and FX policy are all examples of politics conducted through numbers—and their outcomes directly shape citizens’ lives.

5. Lessons for Japan

   • Aging housing complexes, natural disaster risks from earthquakes and heavy rain, population aging, fiscal deficits, and the spillovers from international conflicts—
   • None of these are “distant foreign problems”; they overlap closely with the challenges facing Japanese society today.

Following world news is not just about learning what happens abroad. It’s also about adding more mirrors to think about the future of our own society and daily lives.

If the events of November 26, 2025 covered here can offer even a small hint for your own thinking, from whatever perspective you bring, then this article has served its purpose.

Further Reading (English & Japanese Sources)

• High-rise housing estate fire in Hong Kong believed to have killed 31 (Reuters Japan)
• Exclusive: US peace plan for Ukraine drew from Russian document, sources say (Reuters)
• Floods swamp homeless Palestinians’ tents in Gaza as winter looms (Reuters via Business Standard)
• Lebanon and Cyprus finalize sea border agreement after an almost 20-year impasse (AP News)
• Small US retailers face holiday supply chaos due to Trump tariffs (Reuters)
• Senegal’s debt figures improve after updating economic calculation (Reuters)
• Japan PM Takaichi rejects claims of fiscal profligacy, says FX will be handled with “necessary measures as needed” (Reuters Japan)