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Major Global News (Jan 26, 2026): The War of the Cold Snap and Energy, Trade Reshuffling, and Anxiety Moving Toward “Gold”

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Major Global News (Jan 26, 2026): The War of the Cold Snap and Energy, Trade Reshuffling, and Anxiety Moving Toward “Gold”

Today’s takeaway (key points first)

  • In Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine, Russian drone and missile strikes were reported, cutting power across a wide area including surrounding districts and shaking urban infrastructure in the depths of winter.
  • While talks toward a ceasefire and peace continue, Russia has not backed away from demanding that Ukraine cede the entire Donbas, underscoring again how hard negotiations remain.
  • In Gaza, the recovery of the last remaining hostage’s remains was announced, raising the likelihood that conditions are falling into place for reopening the Rafah crossing (on the Egypt border).
  • India and the EU were set to announce the conclusion of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations. As ties with the U.S. wobble, “recomposition” of trade advanced as concrete policy.
  • The U.S. signaled plans to raise tariffs on imports from South Korea (autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, etc.), reviving trade risk even among allies.
  • Gold broke above $5,000 for the first time ever, with reports also citing moves above $5,100—highlighting a clear flight to safety. The yen strengthened amid intervention speculation, while markets also focused on U.S. monetary policy announcements later in the week.
  • A U.S. cold wave hit oil and gas production and the power supply, with spillover into global LNG markets. The dynamic in which weather jolts international energy prices became even more pronounced.

Who this article helps (who this content is for)

Today’s news was a day when war and diplomacy moved both “the electricity and heat of daily life” and “the trading terms of businesses” at the same time. Even when events feel distant, they gradually work their way into estimates, inventories, fuel costs, insurance, and investment decisions.

In particular, it was a highly practical day for people in manufacturing, trading houses, logistics, and e-commerce with overseas procurement or import/export exposure—especially those connected to autos, electronic components, and pharmaceuticals. Tariffs and agreements don’t just change tax rates; they increase real work on the ground: contract clauses, rules-of-origin certificates, and supply-chain redesign. And even before implementation is final, “front-loaded costs” (inventory, hedging, audits) start to appear.

It also matters for finance, corporate planning, and investment roles. When gold repeatedly updates all-time highs, it is often less about speculation and more about prices “speaking” anxiety over institutions and rules. Meanwhile, sharp yen moves change both import costs and the translated value of overseas revenue at once, directly affecting quarterly planning and pass-through pricing strategies.

Finally, there are strong implications for local governments and disaster preparedness, as well as healthcare/welfare and education. Power outages in Ukraine and outages caused by the U.S. cold snap clearly show how infrastructure failures hit vulnerable people first. Support and evacuation design are no longer “someone else’s country’s problem”—they are increasingly shared challenges of daily life.


1) Ukraine: Kharkiv’s large-scale blackout shows the cruelty of “winter war”

In Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv, Russian drone and missile attacks reportedly damaged homes, schools, and kindergartens, while cutting electricity across a broad area including surrounding regions. Overnight temperatures reportedly fell to around -14°C, and with energy facilities targeted, restoration work must proceed alongside the ongoing threat of air strikes. A winter blackout is not merely inconvenient—it becomes a matter of life and death.

The biggest social impact is the collapse of the basic unit of daily life. When power goes out, lighting, communications, water supply systems, heating, and cooking all become unstable at once. If keeping warm becomes difficult, the burden on the elderly, infants, and those with chronic conditions spikes. Cold is hard to “see,” and by the time people notice, conditions can already be severe. The longer restoration takes, the harder it becomes—cascading through evacuation capacity, medical load, school reopening, and the ability to keep jobs.

Economically, the key is that reduced urban function chills both “production” and “consumption.” Not only do factories and shops slow down; households prioritize securing food and fuel and tend to postpone normal spending. Companies divert funds to backup power, fuel, and maintenance parts, reducing room for investment and wage increases. War steadily erodes national growth capacity by making “spending to protect” a permanent, recurring cost—often more than the direct destruction itself.

Here’s a small example. Imagine a local small food factory installs a generator to prepare for outages. Beyond purchase cost, it must secure fuel, handle maintenance, and address noise and exhaust. Meanwhile, on outage days, output falls and sales are likely to decline. That is a double hit—higher fixed costs and lower revenue—quickly tightening cash flow. Winter blackouts hit smaller, less resilient businesses first.


2) Peace talks: Russia keeps demanding the full Donbas—negotiations harden around “territory”

Even as efforts toward a ceasefire and an end to the war continue, Russia reportedly has not changed its stance of demanding that Ukraine cede the entire Donbas. While Russia is said to control much of the Donbas, Ukraine has clearly rejected territorial concessions. Even when statements describe talks as “constructive,” if the core territorial issue does not move, agreement design will not suddenly progress.

Socially, ongoing talks can be a source of hope, but the higher expectations rise, the larger disappointment can become. Especially with winter infrastructure strikes continuing, the question becomes whether short-term, life-protecting arrangements—limiting attacks on infrastructure, prisoner exchanges, humanitarian corridors—can be made real. Civilians must hold “today’s heating” and “tomorrow’s ceasefire” at the same time, deepening psychological fatigue.

Economically, rigidity in negotiations affects capital flows. Investment for restoration and reconstruction moves more easily as the probability of a ceasefire rises, but if territorial uncertainty remains, private capital is reluctant to enter. As a result, reconstruction can become more dependent on public funds, while supporting countries also take on fiscal burdens and political accountability.


3) Gaza: Recovery of the last hostage’s remains and the reopening of Rafah—the “entry point” to reconstruction comes into view

In the Middle East, Israel announced it recovered the remains of the last remaining hostage in Gaza. The recovery of remains has been positioned as an important condition in the early stages of a ceasefire agreement, and this may increase the chance of limited reopening of the Rafah crossing (between Gaza and Egypt). A provisional technical committee said the crossing could open “this week,” according to reports.

The major social impact is the return of pathways to “go out” and “bring in.” Rafah connects directly to medical evacuations, family reunification, movement of students and workers, and humanitarian logistics—essential breathing room for daily life. The longer closures last, the more shortages tend to trigger price spikes and black-market growth, worsening security and public health. Reopening the crossing matters as a minimum “corridor” that supports the bottom of daily life.

Economically, moving the crossing increases the realism of reconstruction. Reconstruction includes not only rebuilding structures, but also debris removal, water and sewage, electricity, communications, restoring healthcare and education, and job creation. If the entry points for people, equipment, and money remain narrow, plans easily become theoretical. If the entry opens, short-term jobs can appear, cash can circulate through households, and local economic cycles may gradually return.

However, the more reconstruction discussion advances, the clearer the social debates become: who pays, how to handle land and housing rights, and what governance and security mechanism to use. If these remain vague, reconstruction may proceed without social legitimacy, making renewed tensions more likely. Today’s move suggested “an entry point is emerging,” while also increasing the weight of “the blueprint.”


4) India × EU: A 20-year FTA conclusion signals “diversification away from U.S. dependence”

A major trade headline was that India and the EU reportedly finalized negotiations for a free trade agreement and were expected to announce it the next day. Bilateral trade was reported at roughly $136.5 billion in the most recent fiscal year, and implementation was said to be expected “within one year” after legal review. Autos and steel remained contentious to the end, and reports cited an Indian proposal to sharply cut tariffs on EU cars (in some cases from 110% down to 40%). Politically sensitive areas such as agriculture and dairy were also reported to be excluded.

Socially, inside India the balance between industrial protection and market opening will be tested. More pressure from imported cars and high-value products could intensify competition and affect jobs and SMEs. On the other hand, consumers may gain more choices and see stronger price/quality competition. On the EU side, improved access to India is a tailwind for companies, but how far to embed labor and environmental standards into the deal is likely to remain politically charged.

Economically, this FTA is a textbook case of “geopolitics moving trade.” The shakier U.S. relations become, the more both India and the EU want to diversify trading partners and supply networks to reduce risk—and agreements are tools for that. In strategic areas such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and clean tech, this goes beyond tariffs into investment, joint R&D, regulatory alignment, and securing critical resources.

As an example, imagine an Indian firm exporting textiles, jewelry, or machine parts to the EU. Lower tariffs plus simplified customs and stable rules can make longer contracts easier and investment decisions more straightforward. Conversely, if finished vehicles and parts from the EU become easier to import, domestic Indian suppliers will need to raise value-add. FTAs often function less as “winners vs. losers” and more as mechanisms that push industrial reallocation.


5) U.S. × South Korea: Tariff-hike signals increase “transaction costs” even among allies

The U.S. indicated a policy to raise tariffs on imports from South Korea (autos, lumber, pharmaceuticals, etc.) from 15% to 25%. Details such as timing were not immediately clear, but reports said the Korean stock index fell and the won weakened. Korea’s exports to the U.S. are large (second only to China by value, as reported), and autos are a major share of that mix. It was also noted that the impact could extend beyond Korean automakers to foreign automakers producing in Korea for export to the U.S.

Socially, the risk is spillover into jobs and local economies. The auto sector has wide upstream and downstream linkages—parts, logistics, maintenance, dealer networks, and auto finance. When tariffs rise, prices, sales volumes, and investment plans can shift quickly, increasing pressure for labor adjustments. On the consumer side, if prices rise, purchases may be delayed, potentially boosting used-car markets and repair demand as secondary effects.

Economically, tariffs are both a tax burden and “fog in decision-making.” What hurts companies most is often not the absolute rate, but uncertainty over when changes apply, to which items, and how broadly. The more it wavers, the more defensive costs rise—stockpiling, rushing shipments, conservative contract terms—pushing pass-through pressure onto consumers. The reality that trade frictions can flare even among allies pushes companies to treat political risk as “the new normal.”


6) Markets: Gold tops $5,000 for the first time; the yen strengthens amid intervention speculation

In financial markets, the flight to safety intensified. Gold broke above $5,000 per ounce for the first time, with reports also citing moves above $5,100. Multiple drivers were cited: a weaker dollar, instability in the global order, renewed trade frictions, concerns over central bank independence, and firmer inflation expectations. Equity markets rose at times ahead of big earnings and U.S. policy decisions, but the mood remained less “comfortable risk-taking” and more “position adjustments while holding anxiety.”

In FX, the yen strengthened, with intervention speculation also in view. A stronger yen can help bring down Japan’s import prices, while potentially acting as a headwind to exporters’ yen-converted revenue. For households, it may help energy and food prices stabilize; for firms, it can swing earnings outlooks and affect room for price pass-through and wage increases. On days the yen moves, both households and businesses can feel the wobble at once.

As an example, consider a company that imports raw materials, processes them domestically, and exports finished goods. Yen strength reduces import costs but also reduces the yen value of export proceeds. What matters here is hedge design and pricing clauses (FX pass-through, repricing frequency). More than “being right on the market,” the key is whether you have a structure that prevents losses even when swings occur—this is where corporate resilience shows up.


7) U.S. cold wave: Hits oil/gas production and power supply, spreading globally via LNG

Weather remained a major variable in the global economy today. A strong U.S. cold wave was reported to potentially cut oil output by as much as about 2 million barrels per day (around 15% of domestic production), with freezing-related equipment trouble in producing regions. Natural gas supply also reportedly fell sharply, and power outages were reported to reach roughly 800,000 people. Restoration was expected to proceed over days, but the issue with cold snaps is not only “when it returns,” but “what happens before it does.”

Economically, the focus is the link between gas prices and LNG exports. If U.S. gas prices surge while demand jumps and supply drops, feedgas for LNG exports can tighten. The U.S. is a major LNG exporter, and Europe has increased reliance on U.S. LNG since Russia’s invasion. In other words, a U.S. cold wave can look like domestic news while becoming an “international energy problem” that can spill into European prices.

Socially, cold-wave outages reveal fragility when aging infrastructure meets more extreme weather. Outages hit not only heating, but also medical devices, home care, and access to information. Disasters also tend to skew by income and housing conditions: those with more resilient homes and equipment can ride out the cold, while those needing support suffer more. This pattern is shared across the U.S., Europe—and Japan as well.

As an example, imagine European manufacturers planning “next month’s gas procurement.” When supply tightens, it’s not just price increases; you must secure contracts, diversify suppliers, and revise operating plans. Once you include delivery delays and penalty costs from shutdowns, a cold snap becomes not “weather” but “financial risk.” As weather-driven volatility grows, companies enter an era where they pay more for resilience (design slack) than for pure efficiency.


8) China × Vietnam: With leadership reappointment, cooperation is pushed to the forefront

In Asia, China’s President Xi Jinping reportedly called for stronger cooperation after Vietnam’s leader was reappointed. China described the two countries as a “community with a shared future” and referred to strengthening coordination and communication on regional and international issues. Politically, such dialogue can serve as a signal of relationship stabilization.

Economically, Vietnam is a key manufacturing hub and a supply-chain node. Amid ongoing U.S.-China friction, companies have diversified production and built redundant sourcing and assembly footprints. The more stable China–Vietnam relations are, the easier investment planning becomes. Conversely, if the regional diplomatic environment shifts, companies must again price in new risks. Today’s news reaffirms how sensitive Asia’s supply networks are to the “temperature” of politics.


What to watch next (short checklist)

  • How the India–EU FTA is formally announced (scope: items, tariffs, services, investment, rules)
  • When and how broadly the U.S. tariff hike on Korea is implemented, and how Korea’s negotiations and industrial support move
  • U.S. monetary policy decisions later this week, and how long market sensitivity around central bank independence persists
  • As U.S. cold-wave recovery progresses, how LNG exports and European gas prices respond
  • Ukraine’s power restoration and how much negotiating material accumulates ahead of the next talks
  • Under what conditions the Rafah crossing actually reopens, and how much logistics and movement of people recover

Today’s conclusion: The world is re-pricing “heat,” “tariffs,” and “trust”

January 26 was a day when winter warfare threatened electricity and daily life, a cold snap shook energy markets, and trade created uncertainty even among allies. As a result, people and markets leaned further toward safe assets, pushing gold to new all-time highs.
As uncertainty rises, companies increase defensive spending, households curb consumption due to future anxiety, and governments accumulate fiscal burdens and accountability demands. This tends to slow the economy gradually. Today’s news showed the world trying to regain “predictability” by moving three levers at once—infrastructure, trade, and diplomacy.


Reference links (sources)

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